What's at stake in the #CDU race to succeed #Merkel? My colleague @SophiaBesch and I have taken a closer look. https://cer.eu/insights/choosing-merkels-successor-none-above

To start with, the #CDU is *not* like the Tories or the #GOP. The CDU is a status quo party without a mission, except to win elections. Ideas, ideology, charisma – all largely irrelevant.

Second, Germany has changed during #Merkel terms in office – and she in turned changed the #CDU: moved it gently to the centre while remaining a broad church. Right until the refugee crisis, that led to spectacular electoral results.

How? #Merkel just refused to play 'culture war’ politics. Instead, she waited patiently to settle divisive issues when the right moment came. Nuclear power, minimum #wage, gay marriage, conscription ... all fixed without losing too many voters on the right.

Then came the #refugee crisis. Many focus on the rise of the #AfD in Germany, and expected the CDU to move right to emulate Tories and the #GOP. #Merkel and the CDU did no such thing, in part because of German demographics.

Germans with foreign roots make up 10% of the voting population, and rising. The #CDU has always polled very poorly among those – no wonder considering the CDU's openly anti-immigration stance. #Merkel's handling of the #refugee crisis changed that.

The #CDU is now polling *higher* among Germans with foreign roots than among Germans without. A political coalition waiting to happen, in my view.

The change is most striking among Germans with some Turkish roots, who used to be safe #SPD voters. No more. The CDU would be mad to risk that strategic gain.

#Merkel also secured the female vote for the #CDU. The vote share of the CDU was 7%-points higher among women than men. Doubtful that one of the (male) contestants can pull that off.

With these new voters – the centrists, the 'migrant vote', the female vote – who will the #CDU choose as leader?

#Merz will make the run-off, as the right wing backs him. But he is ideologically driven, stuck in the past, and unpopular among the three new voter groups.

#Laschet lacks a profile (and popularity) but in his team with #Spahn represents a chance for the CDU to remain a broad church. Spahn may well end up as candidate for chancellor in the spring.

That leaves #Röttgen, the progressive outsider who is smart, likeable, eloquent – but without a power base in the party, so unlikely. But if he makes the run-off against #Merz may well win.

What about #Söder, the Bavarian prime minister and far and away the person Germans think is most suitable to become chancellor? He is staying out of it, and may not want to risk his standing in Bavaria by running for chancellor.

But if #Söder's popularity remains that high, he may consider running – the ideal pair would be with Röttgen as party leader. That would spell a conservative modernisation like no other pair, and push the door wide open for a black-green coalition.

The main problem of any CDU leader will be that he is not #Merkel and that he faces a very strong opposition.

#Scholz is the most experienced of the whole lot, with a more disciplined SPD behind him.
#Baerbock of the Greens full of ideas and with a confident party behind her.

All will be campaigning with the end of the #pandemic in sight. In such a time of optimism and new beginnings, a #CDU that has been in government for 16 years may struggle to to make its case, fresh face or not.

For Europe, the choice of #CDU head is not that important. Neither Laschet's weird foreign policy views, nor Merz harsh economic views would survive in office. Carefully managing the status quo is the No. 1 item on a CDU chancellors agenda.

But the coalition partner matters. #Merkel dominated European policy because of her standing, the coalition partner hardly mattered. SPD made some inroads with #Scholz.

But a future #CDU chancellor will not have the same standing, opening space for meaningful debates.