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1/8 This study about transmission in NC schools is getting a lot of attention. My thoughts;
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2021/01/06/peds.2020-048090
@JMartin4Schools @votekeithsutton @WRAL
https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/early/2021/01/06/peds.2020-048090
@JMartin4Schools @votekeithsutton @WRAL
2/8 Prevalence in NC had remained low with test positivity between 5-6% when these districts went back 8/15 to 10/23. Recently we hit 17.2%
Community transmission has always been one of the biggest factors in determining a return to F2F.
Community transmission has always been one of the biggest factors in determining a return to F2F.
3/8 Ascertainment bias plays a big factor in this study.
56 districts are part of the ABC collaborative.
Only 17 were able to open 9+ weeks, 11 of those participated. The data was aggregated from those 11 but not independently collected or observed.
56 districts are part of the ABC collaborative.
Only 17 were able to open 9+ weeks, 11 of those participated. The data was aggregated from those 11 but not independently collected or observed.
4/8 There were 773 cases confirmed by testing. We know children are tested less because they have higher rates of being asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic. The study does not cite use of genomic sequencing to confirm these cases were not linked.
5/8 The goal is and has been to provide face to face instruction. That goal may have impacted reporting integrity among individuals or district administration. Especially as members of ABC.
6/8 Testing was not required to return to school, nor was testing required of a household during contact tracing. Not all districts have the same capabilities when tracing. They couldn't verify NPI adherence rates for specific schools like "not talking while unmasked."
7/8 However they were able to conclude "schools can reopen safely if they develop and adhere to specific SARS-CoV-2 prevention policies"
There was no way to verify secondary transmission was restricted to these 32 cases or that NPI in schools was the primary contributing factor.
There was no way to verify secondary transmission was restricted to these 32 cases or that NPI in schools was the primary contributing factor.
8/8 This is a correlative study. It shouldn't draw a conclusion. If we're using correlation, 10 of these 11 counties are cited as being in critical condition by NC DHHS up from 3 of 11 in the beginning of November. Nearly all have increased test positivity, some have doubled.
