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I'll be tweeting about the @ccdcoe Virtual Book Launch: 'Cyber Threats and NATO 2030: Horizon Scanning and Analysis' - happening now!
Keynote David van Weel - NATO's Assistent Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges - highlights how NATO must be able to able to protect and defend itself in cyberspace.
Correction: #CyCon2021 will be online
ASG David vac Weel closes his keynote by acknowledging how some states are turning towards #offensivecyber tools. Questions for NATO and what constitutes acceptable behaviour in cyberspace. Huge themes of course - including cyber-deterrence.
Turning to the pandemic effects - David van Weel highlights a call for individual member states as well as NATO to develop cyber resilience capabilities. Huge interdependencies, as alluded to chapters on supply chain security: https://ccdcoe.org/library/publications/cyber-threats-and-nato-2030-horizon-scanning-and-analysis/
NATO has begun to research the implications of smart cities, including for cyber. NATO's approach to cyber is multi-faceted - see NATO factsheet (Aug 2020) here: https://www.nato.int/nato_static_fl2014/assets/pdf/2020/8/pdf/2008-factsheet-cyber-defence-en.pdf
Time for the first panel, moderated by Dr Anthony Stefanidis and with presentations from @HoansSolo, Jacopo Bellasio, and @Simona_Soare. Read their chapters here: https://ccdcoe.org/library/publications/cyber-threats-and-nato-2030-horizon-scanning-and-analysis/
Franz-Stefan Gady ( @HoansSolo) presents 'Cyber Capabilities and Multi-Domain Operations in
Future High-Intensity Warfare in 2030'.
Future High-Intensity Warfare in 2030'.
The paper introduces technical, organisational and doctrinal requirements for multi-domain operations - looking at the US, UK and Germany precedent. Full paper available here: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/8-Cyber-Capabilities-and-Multi-Domain-Operations-in-Future-High-Intensity-Warfare-in-2030_ebook.pdf
Jacopo Bellasio presenting 'The Impact of New and Emerging Technologies on The
Cyber Threat Landscape and Their Implications for
NATO' (co-authored with @esilfversten @RANDCorporation ) - paper available here: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/5-The-Impact-of-New-and-Emerging-Technologies_ebook.pdf
Cyber Threat Landscape and Their Implications for
NATO' (co-authored with @esilfversten @RANDCorporation ) - paper available here: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/5-The-Impact-of-New-and-Emerging-Technologies_ebook.pdf
Bellasio makes the point that the most significant impact on the cyber threat landscape in the next decade won't be from any individual element - but will be from the complex interaction between various (including current and legacy) technologies.
Bellasio highlights: new cyber developments will further advantage malicious actors - it'll be easier to use newer technologies for offensive activity, with lower ethical and legal barriers. Must consider socio-technical implications - much of the innovation is industry-driven.
Second panel for the 'Cyber Threats and NATO 2030:
Horizon Scanning and Analysis' book launch moderated by @tcstvns - with presentations from Martin Libicki, @BilyanaLilly, Chon L Abraham and @sdaultrey. Focus on cyber conflict to follow.
Horizon Scanning and Analysis' book launch moderated by @tcstvns - with presentations from Martin Libicki, @BilyanaLilly, Chon L Abraham and @sdaultrey. Focus on cyber conflict to follow.
First up: Martin Libicki with 'Cyberspace Escalation: Ladders or Lattices?'. Full paper with Olesya Tkacheva available here: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/3-Cyberspace-Escalation-Ladders-or-Lattices_ebook.pdf
How do you deescalate in cyberspace? Martin Libicki outlines that risk management is more complicated than kinetic domains due to ambiguity.
The paper outlines an 'escalation lattice' highlighting how different forms of escalation may present across cyberspace. Multiple paths for escalation (and therefore, de-escalation)
'Russia’s Cyber Limitations in Personnel and
Innovation, Their Potential Impact on Future
Operations, and How NATO and Its Members Can
Respond' by @BilyanaLilly and Joe Cheravitch up now. Chapter available: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/2-Russias-Cyber-Limitations-in-Personnel-Recruitment-and-Innovation_ebook.pdf
Innovation, Their Potential Impact on Future
Operations, and How NATO and Its Members Can
Respond' by @BilyanaLilly and Joe Cheravitch up now. Chapter available: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/2-Russias-Cyber-Limitations-in-Personnel-Recruitment-and-Innovation_ebook.pdf
The chapter examines the main factors that limit the growth of Russia's cyber programmes, examines policies introduced by Russia to address the limitations - and provides recommendations to NATO and its allies to take advantage of these limitations.
As @BilyanaLilly explains - limitations on Russian cyber programmes are: relative budget, computer science innovation in recent decades, and 'brain-drain' - a skills shortage due to wages (IT practitioners among top worker category to emigrate).
How is Russia addressing these limitations? Outsourcing/ coercing to conduct ops on Moscow's behalf; cultivating specific innovation; expanded recruitment; espionage targetting other states' capabilities and more explained by @BilyanaLilly
And what should NATO & NATO allies do with this information? @BilyanaLilly summarises the paper recommendations: continuing to attract Russian IT talent, continue with indictments, and to carefully consider the consequences of sanctions.
'Considerations for NATO in Reconciling Barriers to
Shared Cyber Threat Intelligence: A study of Japan, the
UK and the US' by Chon Abraham and @sdaultrey. Full paper available: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/10-Considerations-for-NATO-in-Reconciling-Challenges-to-Shared-Cyber-Threat-Intelligence_ebook.pdf
Shared Cyber Threat Intelligence: A study of Japan, the
UK and the US' by Chon Abraham and @sdaultrey. Full paper available: https://ccdcoe.org/uploads/2020/12/10-Considerations-for-NATO-in-Reconciling-Challenges-to-Shared-Cyber-Threat-Intelligence_ebook.pdf
Challenge set one for cyber threat intelligence sharing - capacity and willingness. Chon Abraham highlights the potential role of NATO as an enabler, broker, and advisor.
