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The first poll for the June Iran Presidential election is depressing:
- Only 44% certain to vote
- Sole reformist option in the poll on 2%
- Ahmadinejad leading on 37%
- Personal ratings of leading reformists and moderates low e.g. Rouhani on -39
https://iranwire.com/en/features/8434
- Only 44% certain to vote
- Sole reformist option in the poll on 2%
- Ahmadinejad leading on 37%
- Personal ratings of leading reformists and moderates low e.g. Rouhani on -39
https://iranwire.com/en/features/8434
11 years after the Green movement, its leaders are still under house arrest and Rouhani has been unable to get them released. His much vaunted nuclear deal was trashed by Trump and led to the worst sanctions regime in history. His govt's handling of the pandemic has been abysmal.
It also shows a deep political crisis in the Islamic Republic. Historically low turnout a possibility and a complete lack of faith in the main political groupings to make life better.
Ahmadinejad is leading, not because of his hardline past, but because he's spent the last 8 years rebranding himself, building on the populist 'man of the people' image, criticising corruption and even calling out clampdowns on civil rights.
It's incredibly unlikely the Guardian Council will approve Ahmadinejad's application to be a candidate. And there are other reformist and moderate candidates who could come forward.
There are also always large numbers of 'i don't knows' or 'undecideds' in Iranian polling. Partly due to the closed political environment but also the fluid nature of politics where loyalties to political parties you see elsewhere isn't mirrored.
Sot it's not impossible for reformists/moderates to turn this around. Rouhani himself was a relative unknown who's campaign built strength as it went on. Crucially it inspired a high turnout, convincing a slice of those 'not votings' to turnout. That'll be much harder this time.
Last time the country yearned for change after 8 years of Ahmadinejad. There was no failed nuclear deal, no mismanagement of a pandemic and hope that Green Movement leaders could be released from house arrest. Very different playing field now.
The only hope is for a rapid return to the nuclear deal & immediate gestures that will be felt by ordinary Iranians. On day 1 Biden should...
- Unblock Iran's bid for a $5bn IMF loan to fight Covid
- Re-issue sanctions waivers for oil exports
- Allow Iran to reconnect to international payment systems so it can buy things like medicine
- Outline a rapid timeline for return to the deal with the US taking the first steps
- Re-issue sanctions waivers for oil exports
- Allow Iran to reconnect to international payment systems so it can buy things like medicine
- Outline a rapid timeline for return to the deal with the US taking the first steps
