SHORT THREAD: On covid and the sunk cost fallacy. Many arguments against pivoting to maximum suppression of the virus are based on some version of the sunk cost, or ‘concorde’ fallacy. We should be thinking of the opportunity cost of not going for maximum suppression instead. 1/n

This is based on the notion that a cost that has already been incurred, cannot be recovered. Many countries, such as the UK, chose not to follow a maximum suppression strategy, to ‘strike a balance’ between the economy and the virus. 2/n

This has been proven to be a false dichotomy, with countries that have exerted maximum control of the virus also performing best economically. 3/n

With vaccines on the horizon, there is also the temptation to just keep going with the current strategy until they arrive. While the vaccines are incredibly hopeful, and will eventually help us out of this mess..4/n

..they will not do so on their own, not within the next few months. Even if the planned strategy in the UK is executed to perfection for example, we will still be faced with a situation in early spring where the majority of the population will not have been vaccinated.5/n

We are looking at many more months of this constant battle of attrition with partial controls, waves, and failures of policy. Pivoting to maximum suppression as we roll out this vaccine now, would involve about a month of harsh lockdown. 6/n

Most of the UK population will be subjected to very disruptive measures for the next few weeks. We have an opportunity here to really tighten up, while we roll out the vaccines, and finally try and fix test trace and isolate. 7/n

The additional cost of going for maximum suppression now (so called zero covid), compared to the cost of lockdown anyway, is negligible by comparison. The benefit would be huge, and would mean we will not be stuck in this endless cycle for much of the remainder of 2021. 8/n

We should be thinking of the lost opportunity cost of not going for maximum suppression now, not using the lost cost of having done this half-heartedly the first time round as a reason for inaction now. 9/n