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The FA Cup draw is designed to be as random as it gets. No seeding, anyone can play anyone, but there’s often mention of the same apparent trends when a draw is made. So I've looked back at the last four seasons for a snapshot of the luck of the draw for the so-called "Big Six".
I'm just looking at the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds of the FA Cup. Beyond that it becomes statistically likely you'll draw a good team anyway, so it’s not exactly bad luck to do so. Also, Liverpool are always out by then!
So, since the start of the 2017/18 season, Liverpool have been in 8 FA Cup draws, and have been drawn against 7 Premier League teams. This will become 8 out of 9 if they get past Man Utd and West Ham beat Doncaster in R4.
Manchester City have been in 12 draws, and have been drawn against Premier League teams twice, both of which were Burnley. They have been drawn against 3 League Two teams in that time.
Chelsea have also been in 12 draws, and have been drawn against 3 Premier League teams. They have also been drawn at home on 10 of the last 11 occasions (10 out of 12 if they make it to R5).
Tottenham have been in 10 draws and faced 3 Premier League teams. That will become 4 from 11 if they end up facing Everton in R5.
Manchester United have been in 11 draws, and been drawn against 4 Premier League teams (5 from 12 if they end up facing West Ham in R5).
Arsenal are the 2nd unluckiest of the "Big Six", and they're still only on course to have faced PL teams in around half of their early round games. Assuming they play Southampton in R4, it'll be 4 from the last 8 against PL teams. 5 from 9 if they win that and play Wolves.
It’s not always easier against the lower sides, just ask Leeds, Brighton and West Ham, but Liverpool’s recent record in FA Cup draws feels like that scene in Father Ted where the fortune teller keeps picking Death cards out even though there’s only meant to be one in each pack.
Anyway, enough bemoaning of random chance and @petercrouch being useless at cup draws (
). I need to finish my article on Thiago Alcantara and his talented feet/brain. Up later on @TheAnfieldWrap.
). I need to finish my article on Thiago Alcantara and his talented feet/brain. Up later on @TheAnfieldWrap.
