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Monthly GDP for Norway in November is out. Despite an increase in Covid-19 cases and tightening of restrictions, Mainland GDP (i.e. non-oil) fell only moderately, by 0.9% m-o-m. cc @ChrisGiles_ @RobinWigg @mikaelmilhoj @jathers_ONS (1/9) https://www.ssb.no/en/nasjonalregnskap-og-konjunkturer/artikler-og-publikasjoner/moderate-downturn-in-the-mainland-economy-in-november
Here is the increase in cases in Nov., compared to neighbouring countries. Restrictions: Limit social contacts, max 5 guests at social gatherings in private homes, national ban on serving alcohol after midnight, stricter quarantine and travel rules. (2/9) https://www.regjeringen.no/en/aktuelt/stay-at-home-have-as-little-social-contact-as-possible/id2783763/
Note that half of the downturn in Nov was due to volatile fisheries and hydroelectricity production. W/o these, the fall in Mainland GDP was only 0.4% in November. Why was the downturn so much smaller than in March? Three reasons. (3/9)
First: Schools and kindergartens closed in March, but kept open in November. Health services were not very affected in November. These sectors accounted for about one fifth of the spring downturn. (4/9)
Second: Retail trade kept up well in November. Large increase in online retailers, but also normal shops. Black week + early Christmas shopping. Norway differs from EU27 average, which recorded a 5% fall in Nov. (5/9) https://www.ssb.no/en/varehandel-og-tjenesteyting/artikler-og-publikasjoner/increase-in-retail-sales--441336
Third: Manufacturing posted an increase in value-added of 1.3% in November. (6/9) https://www.ssb.no/en/energi-og-industri/artikler-og-publikasjoner/growth-in-manufacturing-output-in-november
The sectors hit hard in November were already operating well below capacity. Activity in accommodation and restauration, passenger travel and cultural services fell – but from low levels. Here is accomodation: https://www.ssb.no/en/transport-og-reiseliv/artikler-og-publikasjoner/guest-nights-halved(7/9)
Household consumption of goods increased by 1.5%, but consumption of services fell 3.8%. Consequently, hh. consumption fell 1.4% and was still 6.9% below the level in February. (8/9)
Altogether: Moderate downturn in the Norwegian economy in November. Not as bad as many had feared - but activity is still 2.4% below February level. (9/9)
