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Joe Manchin has repeatedly stressed that he doesn't want to get rid of the filibuster. What happens when Rs filibuster a leading Dem priority, such as the new Voting Rights Act, which Manchin cosponsored? [Yes, this is an obvious question but I'm going to ask it anyway.]
Pelosi and Schumer likely both realize that this is a 2-year trifecta and at a minimum, the House is gone in 2022, with the only question being how big the GOP majority is. The Senate might flip too, but it's a closer call depending on who runs in PA/NH/NV/AZ.
They have two ways of going about things with that in mind. 1) Go nuclear on 1/20 and pass whatever can get the votes in the House and the Senate (probably the VRA, a watered-down H.R. 1, statehood, environmental legislation, etc.), and use reconciliation for taxes/healthcare.
2) Spend the first few months passing another COVID bill, infrastructure, a more moderate tax hike, a ton of judges, etc.
The first option would basically need Dem leadership to tell a lot of senators and representatives to take one for the team and vote the party line, with the recognition that they are gone in 2022 no matter what. With a 50-50 Senate, every D is the "deciding vote."
The other option would mean 2022 wouldn't go as poorly for Ds (at least in my pundit mind), but there's less of a payoff as well. And Dems have been talking about reauthorizing the VRA for years at this point.
The biggest question: is Manchin truly an institutionalist or is he more concerned about his next election? If it's the latter, I sincerely doubt he can win with a presidential electorate in 2024, so if he has made up his mind about retiring, then he just might go nuclear.
Manchin won by 3% in 2018 after Schumer's PAC worked to defeat the strongest R in the primary. And that was _with_ him voting for Kavanaugh! He's a goner in 2024 unless Don Blankenship is the R nominee, and even he might be able to win!
An addendum: it's easier for Dems to paint Rs as obstructionists if the very first thing they bring to the floor is filibustered. If Rs help Dems pass 2k checks, minimum wage hike, etc. by providing the votes to get to 60 and then start filibustering stuff, argument is weaker.
