1) In the starkest assessment yet, a deputy Quebec health minister warned Monday of the pandemic’s long-lasting impact not just on #COVID19 patients but on those suffering from cancer. In this thread, I will try to explain the deadly indirect damage the #coronavirus is causing.

2) Because of the worsening #pandemic, the number of elective surgeries in the province has jumped to at least 140,000. Even that number, though, doesn’t tell the full story. Kidney transplants from living donors have been suspended, and some people cannot get a colonoscopy.

3) The ramp down in clinical activities during the #pandemic’s first wave last spring resulted in at least 5,000 fewer cancer diagnoses than the normal volume. That means thousands of Quebecers are walking around with cancers that would otherwise have been detected earlier.

4) It all boils down to two things: a dramatic rise in #COVID19 hospitalizations and the absences of 8,000 health care workers due to the #pandemic. “The issue of a lack of staffing is huge,” Dr. Lucie Opatrny told reporters. “That’s the underpinning, crucial matter.”

5) On Monday, Quebec posted a total of 1,435 #COVID19 hospitalizations, up by 56 from the day before. ICU stays rose by eight to 211. The number of such hospitalizations in the Montreal region has surged from 472 on Dec. 11 to 1,071 on Sunday.

6) “The impact are enormous and will be felt for several months or even years, because of the delays that have accumulated in the waiting lists,” Opatrny stated in arguably the most candid public assessment of the #pandemic to date by a health official in Quebec.

7) Meanwhile, there were some tentative signs of a possible plateauing in #COVID19 cases. But I caution that a similar pattern has occurred many times before, only for the numbers to ramp up again. Montreal posted 750 #COVID19 cases Monday, down from 1,071 the day before.

8) At the neighborhood level, the borough of Saint-Léonard — which has observed a #COVID19 positivity rate of 20.9% — recorded 1010 cases Sunda, a sign the #coronavirus is still circulating in high numbers even after the tighter lockdown that kicked off on Dec. 17.

9) Despite the curfew announced Saturday, Montreal’s hospital emergency rooms were still busy Monday night. “Last night during the curfew, we had four COVID patients in a row come in by ambulance,” a Montreal ER nurse told me. See the chart below.

10) Despite these grim numbers, Premier François Legault defended his decision to reopen elementary schools Monday, saying he took a “calculated risk.” He’s betting that reopened schools won’t lead to more community transmission. That didn’t happen last fall. End of thread.

Addendum: Typos in Tweet #8. I mean 101 cases. Also, I misspelled Sunday. My apologies.