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This is my application article for a role of @FPL_Connect. Best Keeper for GW18 Free Hit #FPL https://twitter.com/FPL__Raptor/status/1347509213698863106
Not quite as glamourous as a correct captain call, but the right keeper choice this week could be a powerful differential this week, especially if - like many of us -you’re freehitting in GW18.
Who are the main Candidates?
Who are the main Candidates?
2020/21 Goalkeeping Performance
Lloris dwarfs the other keepers, with only Darlow and Leno managing to come close to him in terms of FPL returns. There’s little surprise here – Lloris is a fantastic shot stopper playing for a defensive team. His dominance is reinforced by key per
Lloris dwarfs the other keepers, with only Darlow and Leno managing to come close to him in terms of FPL returns. There’s little surprise here – Lloris is a fantastic shot stopper playing for a defensive team. His dominance is reinforced by key per
formance indicators for keepers – save % and PsxGA…
That 82% Save % is extraordinary, even by Lloris’s standards. He’s also conceded considerably fewer goals than Understat’s xGs metric would expect. However, xG is designed for evaluating quality of chances rather than quality
That 82% Save % is extraordinary, even by Lloris’s standards. He’s also conceded considerably fewer goals than Understat’s xGs metric would expect. However, xG is designed for evaluating quality of chances rather than quality
of shots, so the metric I’m focusing on for evaluating keeper performance is post-shot xG, which is calculated based on the characteristics (e.g. trajectory) of the shot itself. Crucially, Lloris towers above all others once again. Honourable mentions to Leno and Darlow.
Rankings and key stat
1st Lloris 82% Save %
2nd Leno 5 clean sheets
3rd Darlow 64 saves
4th De Gea 4 clean sheets
5th Ramsdale 0 clean sheets. Wow
Defensive Record
You may be wondering – why on earth are people calling for Ramsdale to be included? And why isn’t there more
1st Lloris 82% Save %
2nd Leno 5 clean sheets
3rd Darlow 64 saves
4th De Gea 4 clean sheets
5th Ramsdale 0 clean sheets. Wow
Defensive Record
You may be wondering – why on earth are people calling for Ramsdale to be included? And why isn’t there more
buzz for Lloris (even before his more appetising Fulham opponent was announced)? What’s clear is that Ramsdale has had a horrifying time of it, conceding 29, including 12 at home with a slight sign of improvement desperately welcome in the fall to only 6.8xGA conceded in the last
5.
Signs of improvement can also be seen at Arsenal in goals conceding reduing from 15 in their first 12 games (1.25GA per game) to 4 in their last 5 (0.8 GA per game). Their xGA has also dropped from 1.2 per 90 in their first 12 games, to 1.1 in their last 5.
Meanwhile, Spurs
Signs of improvement can also be seen at Arsenal in goals conceding reduing from 15 in their first 12 games (1.25GA per game) to 4 in their last 5 (0.8 GA per game). Their xGA has also dropped from 1.2 per 90 in their first 12 games, to 1.1 in their last 5.
Meanwhile, Spurs
and Newcastle have both suffered a noticeable drop in defensive numbers – but as they’ve both had a horror run of fixtures including the likes of Liverpool, Leeds, and Leicester in the last 5, it probably isn’t worth reading into this downturn too much.
This next table and the
This next table and the
xG per scoring shot bring me comfort. I’m often watching games, sadistically waiting for that extra shot on target that will get me a saves bonus point, even though I know it can come at the dreaded cost of a lost clean sheet. United, Arsenal and Spurs concede goals that come
from shots which average an xG of 0.4 or higher, showing that their keepers not only face fewer shots (211 or fewer), but generally take higher quality shots to be beaten.
Mourinho’s counter attacking tactics mean that Spurs do invite their opposition onto them (211 shots and 68
Mourinho’s counter attacking tactics mean that Spurs do invite their opposition onto them (211 shots and 68
on target compared to 204 and 58 for Arsenal), however, they restrict the quality of the shots better than any other team with the average xG per shot at 0.09 and the average xG of a saved shot even lower at 0.07. This suggests Lloris is able to mop up punt shots from outside
the box in a way that Burnley keepers have been for years… and while there’s nothing more satisfying than a Pope haul, Lloris might be this GW’s stand in.
Yeah… that’s the only trouble with United and Spurs - 11 and 10 goals conceded respectively from set pieces and penalties.
Yeah… that’s the only trouble with United and Spurs - 11 and 10 goals conceded respectively from set pieces and penalties.
Rankings and key stat
1st Lloris only 0.07xG average for saved shots
2nd Leno only 58 shots on target conceded
3rd De Gea 11 goals conceded from set pieces
4th Darlow 88 shots on target conceded
5th Ramsdale 0.26xG average for scoring shots
Opposition Attacking Prowess (or
1st Lloris only 0.07xG average for saved shots
2nd Leno only 58 shots on target conceded
3rd De Gea 11 goals conceded from set pieces
4th Darlow 88 shots on target conceded
5th Ramsdale 0.26xG average for scoring shots
Opposition Attacking Prowess (or
lack thereof)
We’ve been quietly impressed by Leno and Arsenal’s defensive numbers so far, their opponent is by far the most worrying of the lot. Not only are Palace posting the highest xG across the board (18.2), but they’re also outperforming this xG (+21%). At the other end,
We’ve been quietly impressed by Leno and Arsenal’s defensive numbers so far, their opponent is by far the most worrying of the lot. Not only are Palace posting the highest xG across the board (18.2), but they’re also outperforming this xG (+21%). At the other end,
Sheffield United (8 goals), Fulham (13 goals) and Burnley (9 goals) are all posting pretty measly numbers.
Bit of a painful bombshell here for any United holdouts. Burnley and Palace are particular threats from set pieces (5 goals each is respectable). De Gea and United are so
Bit of a painful bombshell here for any United holdouts. Burnley and Palace are particular threats from set pieces (5 goals each is respectable). De Gea and United are so
terribly poor at set pieces (7 conceded) that this does feel like something of a final straw. Worth bearing in mind 3 of those set pieces can be attributed solely to JWP, but still the match up is a concern.
Fulham are much more accommodating when it comes to set pieces and
Fulham are much more accommodating when it comes to set pieces and
will even throw their penalties to help the cause. Lloris has saved more penalties (5) than any of the other keepers (although De Gea and Leno have both saved 2) across his Premier League career. I’d still hide behind the sofa if I owned him and Fulham had a pen, but a penalty
save would likely put Lloris as a standout points performer of the GW.
Fulham love a shot and their shots do carry potential threat (0.13 xG average), however, their attackers are as assertive as pillows, which could play into Lloris’s 82% collecting hands. Leno is also likely
Fulham love a shot and their shots do carry potential threat (0.13 xG average), however, their attackers are as assertive as pillows, which could play into Lloris’s 82% collecting hands. Leno is also likely
to be kept busy (65 SoT), which could well put him up for bonus points and save points should he keep Palace out.
Rankings and key stat
1st De Gea vs Burnley5 set pieces scored
2nd Darlow vs SHU8 goals scored all season
3rd Lloris vs Fulham2 goals in last 5
4th Ramsdale vs
Rankings and key stat
1st De Gea vs Burnley5 set pieces scored
2nd Darlow vs SHU8 goals scored all season
3rd Lloris vs Fulham2 goals in last 5
4th Ramsdale vs
Newcastle7 goals from set pieces and penalties
5th Leno vs Palace21% xG overperformance
Conclusion and Final Rankings
I kept an open mind doing this research, and before it, I was leaning another way, so I help it’s been as helpful for you as it has for me… but let’s be
5th Leno vs Palace21% xG overperformance
Conclusion and Final Rankings
I kept an open mind doing this research, and before it, I was leaning another way, so I help it’s been as helpful for you as it has for me… but let’s be
honest, after all this, we’re probably heading for a 0 clean sheet gameweek.
Here and my final rankings with a bunched-up middle section with little seperating 4th and 2nd.
5th Place Ramsdale vs Sheffield United.
Why on earth did I even bother to include him? Time none of us
Here and my final rankings with a bunched-up middle section with little seperating 4th and 2nd.
5th Place Ramsdale vs Sheffield United.
Why on earth did I even bother to include him? Time none of us
will ever get back.
4th Place Darlow vs Sheffield United
The bookies look to have got this one wrong. Sheffield United have very little threat going forward, and Newcastle are reasonably well-drilled at the back. With a little luck, Lascelles will play the whole game, and
4th Place Darlow vs Sheffield United
The bookies look to have got this one wrong. Sheffield United have very little threat going forward, and Newcastle are reasonably well-drilled at the back. With a little luck, Lascelles will play the whole game, and
Darlow will keep out Sheffield United. While De Gea has the greater shot of a clean sheet, Darlow does have a slightly better chance of save and bonus points, and is therefore a slightly more explosive option.
3rd Place De Gea vs Burnley
United’s defensive regression is baffling
3rd Place De Gea vs Burnley
United’s defensive regression is baffling
, and until Maguire and De Gea return to their once meterotic heights, this regression will be the new norm. Even so, Burnley will offer virtually no attacking resistance and United will be holding the ball too much to concede many set pieces. The biggest reservation is that De
Gea is unlikely to see save or bonus points.
2nd Place Leno vs Palace
Leno is without doubt the big balls move. Palace have a much greater goal threat than the other teams and will test Leno throughout. He could easily rake up 6 saves. Add in a clean sheet and given Arsenal’s
2nd Place Leno vs Palace
Leno is without doubt the big balls move. Palace have a much greater goal threat than the other teams and will test Leno throughout. He could easily rake up 6 saves. Add in a clean sheet and given Arsenal’s
often poor attack, and Leno could be on for some big bonus points. However, Palace’s goals have been scintillating at times; their xG overperformance of 21% speaks for itself. I can’t help but think his cleansheet potential is closer to Darlow’s than De Gea’s or Lloris’s.
1st Place Lloris vs Fulham
A keeper in fine form, making saves for fun against frustrated opposition. He now faces a Fulham side with lots of attacking spirit, but little punch. The Bookies’ joint favourite, and also a likely contender for save and bonus points. The clear winner.
A keeper in fine form, making saves for fun against frustrated opposition. He now faces a Fulham side with lots of attacking spirit, but little punch. The Bookies’ joint favourite, and also a likely contender for save and bonus points. The clear winner.
Bookies’ odds are from Betfair’s Sportsbook at 4pm on 11/01.
PsxGA taken from statsbref
All other statistics taken from http://understat.com
xG is rounded to 1.d.p. except for xG per shot which is rounded to 2.d.p.
PsxGA taken from statsbref
All other statistics taken from http://understat.com
xG is rounded to 1.d.p. except for xG per shot which is rounded to 2.d.p.
