I think we are probably sliding towards a very messy and confusing low grade civil war, in which the citizenry and government is fighting itself, no matter what happens. This could play out several different ways.

The second wave of the coup attempt is in the next 10 days and will involve armed attacks on state capitols and the inauguration. If these succeed, Trump remains in office. If they fail, there is a long term terrorist threat. If they stall, a prolonged conflict starts.

Let's assume the best case scenario, which is that Biden gets into office. This will be met with heightened militia activity and retaliatory terrorist attacks in the short, medium, and long term.

If there is enough chaos, Trump will try to exploit it to remain in power under the guise of an emergency. This may be the goal of wave 2. If this happens, you will see left wing insurgency against the Trump coup government play out over a sustained period of time.

In all of these scenarios, it ends with Americans killing each other and competing factions within the government, which is not a monolith, fighting each other. The only exit from these outcomes is if the military decisively squashes the coup attempt and restores order.

I don't really see a conflict of standing armies taking place, Blue vs Grey style. I think there are going to very blurred lines in every dimension of the conflict. No one will know exactly what is going on most of the time. Let us hope for peace and prepare for the worst.