Here is a mega thread on which I will go through various charts (models + price) to get a better sense of what our current situation is like.

Models from @woonomic @hcburger1 @CryptoKea @100trillionUSD @PositiveCrypto @kenoshaking @glassnode @n3ocortex @cryptoquant_com.

I'll start with the Long term power law and power law oscillator. A potential top could come much higher at 90k+, however from the Oscillator we see were more overextended than June 2017 and June 2019. Pretty bearish.

The we go to the S2F ratio which historically has worked pretty well and to the S2FX model. Right now we could see a dip down to 1 (hit S2F 463 DMA) and bottom after getting very overbought.

Nearly touched the S2FX 463 DMA average and dropped hard. Model shows top >288k

Next Mayer multiple, Mayer multiple bands & golden ratio multiplier.

Clear we got extremely overbought, nearly 2017 top levels... Support in the 17-25k range.

Here I'd also like to point out that we are almost 6 months ahead of the previous cycle, so things got a bit crazy.

Puell multiple, MRVR, VWAP Ratio & MPI. Again all show like most others that we are in 'bad' situation at least short term.

Most range around June 17, Dec 17 and June 19. Of course there are some key differences: fundamentals are a lot better and institutions are here

Another key factor is that alts are only ~30% of the market and not ~70% like back then.

Also Total marketcap is currently around the same level as the top of 2018 which isn't even 1T! We got above that key level which definitely sent another message to the world.

If we assume all assets in the world are about 500-1000T and crypto is at 1T, the we have a lot of room to the upside. Especially with maybe 0.1% of funds globally being invested and only ~5% of adults in the 18-65 group being somewhat invested.

So all I am saying is short term.

NUPL, Reserve Risk, Rhodl, Thermocap. Same story, but like with most other models we have more upside.

It will be interesting to see where things top and if these models break as institutitions enter... because most of these have worked pretty well in a retail only market.

Of course they are valuable, especially as they clearly caught the situation as being the same with other key tops.

However as I will show later on there are some key differences this time around.

NTVS, NVM, NVT golden cross, NVT price. Again same story. June 17 & Jun 19... But with NVTS just mooning beyond anything we've seen before.

So far corrections had been about 10-22%, but today that was much bigger. Big crash, reminding me stocks in March in a compressed timeframe

Exchange balance has been going down, but still elevated... Plus lots of exchange missing and overall I think numbers aren't perfect for many reasons.

However not total BTC supply is 11% larger from the 2017 top and exchange balance 20% larger.

Active addresses hitting ATH, blocks are >20% larger than 2018 top, yet fees are much smaller. Clearly lots of improvements. Until fees go nuts, no mega top!

Withdrawals and deposits also at elevated levels (JUNE!!)

From looking at UTXOs, we see too much stuff going on short term. Crazy amounts of coins changing hands.

For that aSOPR to come down... Another intersting thing is that usually all UTXOs are essentially in profit for 1-3 months and then a big correction comes which seems normal

Overall the leverage hasn't been too high... It only started increasing near the top imho. Funding remained relatively low and Open interest in Bitcoin terms wasn't that high really.

However we didn't see stablecoins increasing as fast as during the summer

Imho Cryptoquant is missing something. I can't believe only 3.5B of stablecoins are with exchanges. Yes yield farming is big, yes people hold some themselves... but still!

There are so many pairs, so many products... Seems a bit off to me.

Also another key thing to note is that imho for the Total Mcap to stablecoin Mcap, alts should be included. A lot of these stablecoins are used for altcoins trading, so it is not proper to exclude them.

The reversal in the ratio is also big, as it shows big money getting in

Here is the actual chart. Alts and the Defi boom sucked a lot people in crypto. Along with the Covid crash, they brought a lot of stablecoins in the market and new interest. Now we are seeing interest outside crypto getting strong, while a lot of money has gotten in already

Bitfinex premium, USDT premiums, OKex futs premiums, Bitmex basis. Look much healthier they all look.

Yes we got a few spikes recently, but nothing crazy. I don't expect these to get as crazy as 2017, but they have to get more out of whack from what they are now.

We had the massive profit taking on Bitfinex for ETH, which may have added to the pressure, also saw it on LTC... yet BTC was decreasing all along. During the entire up move and only increased a bit at the end.

Most worrying sign comes from OKex and Gate.

Bitfinex has now had the almost the lowest L/S ratio in quite some time, yet OKex has also been incredible at predicting what will happen. During the bull it stayed mostly below 1.3 and went about just short term. Now it keeps going higher as price goes down.

Maybe it is due to shorts covering, but it is still kinda risky as there are too many longs. During the entire move funding has mostly stayed relatively high as well. Maybe a big sign retail traders are trying to buy the dip but get squeezed.

Again not saying that this is a long term top or that we are done. Just making it clear there could be more downside short term, with 24-25k being my best target. if we chop more or trend lower.

Initially my target was 33k from the top, but we went to as low as 30k.

For now that seems to have been reclaimed, so for now I have no certain bias. Long term extremely bullish. Just short term cautious.

I am balls deep anyways and don't plan to sell, just looking to accumulate more via leveraged longs and alts.

Several models show support in the 17-25k region, for which I think 24k is more than enough. There are some gaps / untested levels below 24k, but to me it seems a bit too much to see that go lower. That'd be a 40% correction from the top.

So could we have bottomed? Potentially, but things are still kinda crazy. Volatility still very high, but also something key to note: When Bitcoin volatility goes down, alts go up. And we are at a place where historically volatility tops. So maybe alt season is very close?

Both realized and implied volatility are off the charts right now. After that I expect things to cool down substantially for BTC.

This was the correction we needed for alts to seriously take off, if they do! Again there are still quite a few uncertainties here

but I am convinced we are not far off. My view was in early Dec alts would bottom and worst case early Jan they would pop. The bottom didn't come in Dec, but maybe it has come in early January.

Bull market percentage and Bitcoin volatility indicate we are close!

My key target for Bitcoin Dominance had been 77%. It wasn't touched, but!!! Due to the fact that we have all these stablecoins, wrapped bitcoins etc... we got there but the chart isn't calculating things right.

In USD alts are still cheap and just above their Sep highs

These are my indices and they aren't perfect, but a good estimate for where we are. Alts overall very cheap in USD, but in BTC they could keep trending down.

Wait for the breakout and then get it! ETHBTC imho will get to 0.052-0.068 in the next alt season. A matter of when