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The story of Manaus is worrisome
1. Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil had an overwhelming initial surge (44% seropositive, likely 76% infected)
2. Cases now surging again
3. Mutant variants found spreading
4. Variants like the UK variant, but arose separately in Brazil
1. Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil had an overwhelming initial surge (44% seropositive, likely 76% infected)
2. Cases now surging again
3. Mutant variants found spreading
4. Variants like the UK variant, but arose separately in Brazil
Here's the first and current surges. Given the initial infection rate thought to be 76%, this is concerning for reinfected https://twitter.com/josegallucci/status/1348729040702742528?s=20
Here's the documentation of the first huge wave with 44% antibody positive and an expected 76% infected in Manaus, capital of Amazonas https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728
A new variant has been documented to cause reinfection and even be more severe the 2nd time. We will need to see how common reinfections and whether others are severe https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1347016588579508224?s=20
More on reinfection in the presence of antibodies https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-article/doi/10.1093/nsr/nwab006/6081102?searchresult=1
Here's more on the on-the-ground clinical situation in Manaus. "Hospitals and cemeteries are again overwhelmed, resembling the brutal outbreak last April" https://twitter.com/TelGlobalHealth/status/1348653274170347527?s=20
Travelers are often the canary in the coal mind. 4 travelers in Japan were found to have this Brazilian variant https://twitter.com/NikkeiAsia/status/1348316512491368449?s=20https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1348631273191985153?s=20
Punchline, with all the unchecked spread, COVID has been rolling its dice again and again. A few times around the world - and maybe more - it has morphed into a more transmissible form that can cause surges where 3/4 have been infected.
Some of the vaccines that are being rolled out do not have any published efficacy data and others have efficacy in the 60% range. There are lessons here from Manaus. COVID may be a long game of whack-a-mole
For those who asked about the climate in Manaus: red is the temperature, pretty much the same warm temps month to month. Blue is precipitation.
In a radio interview yesterday https://twitter.com/InfectiousDz/status/1348975416225247232?s=20
And don't ever expect natural herd immunity to be the answer https://twitter.com/InfectiousDz/status/1348977210313601026?s=20
