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I'm going to explain in a few tweets why, other than the fact that it hasn't happened in the past three months, I fundamentally don't believe waivers are going to allow for humanitarian aid in #Yemen
1/ https://twitter.com/ScottTPaul/status/1348492206722715649
1/ https://twitter.com/ScottTPaul/status/1348492206722715649
Some context: in the past, when FTO and SDGT designations are made, OFAC (Treasury) has issued specific licenses for transactions incidental to humanitarian assistance. Typically they only cover USAID, State, and implementing partners.
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The licenses are predicated on humanitarians making best efforts to avoid helping the designated group. They protect aid groups from being enforced against/prosecuted if they do their due diligence but transactions with/support for the group happens anyway.
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Because FTO designations trigger the material support statutes, DOJ needs to sign off on these licenses. When they do, humanitarian orgs get effective protection from criminal prosecution.
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But FTO and SDGT designated groups tend to be at the margins of society. Occasionally some will control territory, which makes all of this a tricky business. Ansar Allah in #Yemen is the de facto government, with jurisdiction over 70% of the country's people.
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For any license to work, it'd need to cover the kind of transactions that are customary btw aid groups (and importers and banks) and governments. But OFAC typically doesn't issue licenses that broad for SDGTs, and it's hard to imagine DOJ signing one off for an STO.
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That's because, again, SDGT and FTO designations aren't really well-suited for de facto governments. The kind of license that would work could be issued under other designations/sanctions programs - like the #Yemen sanctions program, which already exists.
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And guess what - under the Yemen sanctions program, key Houthi leaders are already listed, which is why most of the DESIRED effects of the new designations are taking place already, and moot.
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Bottom line: if the Trump admin wanted to apply sanctions in a way that allows them to enable humanitarian aid, they would have done it another way. But they didn't, and now, in all likelihood, they won't.
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One more point to make on this: I’m fairly certain there WILL be licenses issued on 1/19 for humanitarian aid. Failing to issue them would be a PR disaster. But I’m confident that they won’t be broad enough to actually enable humanitarian work- and everyone involved will know it.
