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1/n
10 mos ago, we shut down the world because of a virus we thought would overwhelm our hospitals, kill 1.1% of the people it infected, and infect more than 60% of the population before it abated. None of this has proven true. The data follows.
10 mos ago, we shut down the world because of a virus we thought would overwhelm our hospitals, kill 1.1% of the people it infected, and infect more than 60% of the population before it abated. None of this has proven true. The data follows.
2/n
The CDC recently published its Cv19 disease burden. The real IFR is 0.22%. 5 x lower than the initial estimate & only 2x that of flu. More than 200 million people (<50) have the same or substantially lower risk of death from COVID than from flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
The CDC recently published its Cv19 disease burden. The real IFR is 0.22%. 5 x lower than the initial estimate & only 2x that of flu. More than 200 million people (<50) have the same or substantially lower risk of death from COVID than from flu.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
3/n
At no point have our hospitals been overwhelmedânot even in NYC which âboastsâ one of the highest death rates in the world. Even at our peak on Jan. 6, with 132K hospitalized, we were using only 17.6% of our hospital capacity for COVID.
At no point have our hospitals been overwhelmedânot even in NYC which âboastsâ one of the highest death rates in the world. Even at our peak on Jan. 6, with 132K hospitalized, we were using only 17.6% of our hospital capacity for COVID.
4/n
Of those hospitalized, according to the Boston Globe, â30 percent of COVID patients are at the hospital primarily for some other reason â but also happen to test positive for COVID. They are mostly asymptomaticâ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/04/business/massachusetts-hospitals-filling-with-covid-patients-still-have-space-more/
Of those hospitalized, according to the Boston Globe, â30 percent of COVID patients are at the hospital primarily for some other reason â but also happen to test positive for COVID. They are mostly asymptomaticâ https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/12/04/business/massachusetts-hospitals-filling-with-covid-patients-still-have-space-more/
5/n
In LA, now one of the major hotspots, COVID patientsâwhich does include those 30% asymptomatic who are there for other reasonsâare using 40% of hospital capacity, but only 77% of hospital capacity is being used, and only 81% of ICU capacity.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODMzMWUxODEtNzMyNy00NWJjLWIzNTktYzJiZGMxMjFiMTgyIiwidCI6IjQ4ZGIxMmFjLTVkYzMtNGQ1MS05N2VkLTVhM2RkZTYxOTlmYyJ9
In LA, now one of the major hotspots, COVID patientsâwhich does include those 30% asymptomatic who are there for other reasonsâare using 40% of hospital capacity, but only 77% of hospital capacity is being used, and only 81% of ICU capacity.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiODMzMWUxODEtNzMyNy00NWJjLWIzNTktYzJiZGMxMjFiMTgyIiwidCI6IjQ4ZGIxMmFjLTVkYzMtNGQ1MS05N2VkLTVhM2RkZTYxOTlmYyJ9
6/n
Nor does it appear that 60% of people need to be infected before the virus abates. NYC where as high as 27% of people tested positive for antibodies, has never had a resurgence in deaths (the best measure of cases) though less-hard-hit NY state has.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Nor does it appear that 60% of people need to be infected before the virus abates. NYC where as high as 27% of people tested positive for antibodies, has never had a resurgence in deaths (the best measure of cases) though less-hard-hit NY state has.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
7/n
And yet for all of this, our leaders continue to act as if we have no new information. As if we have not had this information since May. The OECD has claimed that lockdowns will need to continue throughout the year. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55569760
And yet for all of this, our leaders continue to act as if we have no new information. As if we have not had this information since May. The OECD has claimed that lockdowns will need to continue throughout the year. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-55569760
8/n
This despite the fact that there appears to be next to no relationship between these lockdowns, and the spread of the disease, and that any spread of this disease has become a reason to keep schools closed.
This despite the fact that there appears to be next to no relationship between these lockdowns, and the spread of the disease, and that any spread of this disease has become a reason to keep schools closed.
9/n
This despite the fact that now that we have largely left off the deadly lockdowns, there is absolutely no increased death in those under 45, who are, as noted earlier, not at-risk of death from the virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
This despite the fact that now that we have largely left off the deadly lockdowns, there is absolutely no increased death in those under 45, who are, as noted earlier, not at-risk of death from the virus.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
10/n
This despite the fact that we now have 100 million courses of a vaccine that is 95% effectiveâroughly equal to the number of people we have at elevated risk for death.
This despite the fact that we now have 100 million courses of a vaccine that is 95% effectiveâroughly equal to the number of people we have at elevated risk for death.
11/n
Yet our political and medical leaders have chosen to extend our hell by vaccinating not the people who are dying, but exactly those people who are not dying, prioritizing 80 M younger essential workers over those at serious risk of death.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
Yet our political and medical leaders have chosen to extend our hell by vaccinating not the people who are dying, but exactly those people who are not dying, prioritizing 80 M younger essential workers over those at serious risk of death.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
12/n
As well as being @ lower risk, many, if not most of these workers have already been exposed. Testing in NYC showed that as many as 40% had antibodies, & the CDC itself says there is no different between naturally-conferred immunity and vax-conferred
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
As well as being @ lower risk, many, if not most of these workers have already been exposed. Testing in NYC showed that as many as 40% had antibodies, & the CDC itself says there is no different between naturally-conferred immunity and vax-conferred
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
13/n
Of the 30 million front-line essential workers, 89% are in the lower-risk under 65 age group.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
Of the 30 million front-line essential workers, 89% are in the lower-risk under 65 age group.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
14/n
Were we not to prioritize these lower-risk younger workers, we could vaccinate 100% of people over 65, all Healthcare personnel, and still have 24 million vaccines available for those with serious co-morbidities in the under-65 group.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
Were we not to prioritize these lower-risk younger workers, we could vaccinate 100% of people over 65, all Healthcare personnel, and still have 24 million vaccines available for those with serious co-morbidities in the under-65 group.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
15/n
Instead, those from 65-74 & those with co-morbidities<65 will have to wait until week 12âanother 10 weeks. With roughly 2500/week dying in the 65-74 age group, and 2K under 65 with significant co-morbidities, this will result in 45K add'l deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
Instead, those from 65-74 & those with co-morbidities<65 will have to wait until week 12âanother 10 weeks. With roughly 2500/week dying in the 65-74 age group, and 2K under 65 with significant co-morbidities, this will result in 45K add'l deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2020-12/slides-12-20/02-COVID-Dooling.pdf
16/n
Why? Because the CDC refuses to use its own data. Why does the CDC refuse to look at its own data? One can only presume that it is because they spent so long telling people <65 that they are at significant risk, and they donât want to admit being wrong once again.
Why? Because the CDC refuses to use its own data. Why does the CDC refuse to look at its own data? One can only presume that it is because they spent so long telling people <65 that they are at significant risk, and they donât want to admit being wrong once again.
17/n
Can it possibly be worth 45K lives to be right? The answer is surely no. Yet nor could it have been worth a generation of children missing a year or more of school, either. But that too has been done because the CDC refused to acknowledge being wrong, to be honest with us?
Can it possibly be worth 45K lives to be right? The answer is surely no. Yet nor could it have been worth a generation of children missing a year or more of school, either. But that too has been done because the CDC refused to acknowledge being wrong, to be honest with us?
