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Big tech has canceled Parler and the President. Here's what happens next:
1. Parler will be back. It's well funded and has the most engaged community of the so-called "alt-tech" platforms. If even 8chan/8kun can find a new home on the internet after being taken down, so can Parler.
2. In the meantime, online factions need three things to run influence campaigns; they have to develop narratives, amplify those narratives, and distribute them to the mainstream. Other spaces like Gab, MeWe, etc provide the necessary tools for these factions' continued success
3. Research shows that "deplatforming" does reduce a group's influence. But it also further radicalizes diehard supporters. Expect disinformation campaigns to get more creative, more desperate, and harder to predict.
4. While a small subset of Parler users are violent extremists, many more are highly-engaged political junkies, conspiracy theorists, provocateurs, etc who shouldn't be targeted by law enforcement, and will still engage in what they see as digital activism.
5. For example these factions and their sympathizers are already organizing boycotts of brands that advertise on Twitter. Expect the same retaliation against other platforms, and a future in which platforms, brands, and public figures are required to take sides.
6. And while preventing violence is an obvious good, the collective action taken by tech companies this weekend will have unintended consequences. The concerns about their power over our political discourse are justified. Expect the large social media platforms to be regulated.
7. In short, we can no longer separate private enterprise, politics, and the public square.
8. Don’t forget that these radicalized factions have well-connected, high-profile sympathizers who are *not* endorsing violence, aren't infringing on platforms' terms of service, and whose speech is protected by the first amendment.
9. Previous waves of online radicalization (namely ISIS) didn't have high-profile sympathizers with access to significant US audiences. Sympathizers with QAnon, Proud Boys, etc will continue to be active on mainstream social platforms and in the media.
10. So everyone should prepare to be in this for the long haul. The violence at the Capitol, especially after the suicide bombing in Nashville over Christmas, was, in many ways, the culmination of a decade of radicalization -- enabled by some public figures, but born online.
11. In years to come we'll understand the full impact of online radicalization on an entire *generation* who has grown up online. As researchers have been saying for years, other platforms, like YouTube, are effectively "radicalization machines" https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/interview/renee-diresta/
12. And radicalization is a problem that is managed, not solved. While the actions taken by tech companies last week will have a short-term impact on violent groups' ability to organize, we're only just beginning to address what may be the biggest challenge of the next decade
