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1/n
I bet you thought the CDC forgot your for Christmas, right?
But they didn't!
On Dec. 23, when you were busy ignoring Dr. Fauci, they released an estimated disease burden for COVID--like they do for flu (well almost)
Ok, close your eyes and I'll give you your surprise..
I bet you thought the CDC forgot your for Christmas, right?
But they didn't!
On Dec. 23, when you were busy ignoring Dr. Fauci, they released an estimated disease burden for COVID--like they do for flu (well almost)
Ok, close your eyes and I'll give you your surprise..
2/n
It wasn't QUITE like what they do for flu, b/c they didn't include deaths. But that's easy to find.
At the end of Sept, the CDC estimated there were:
~90 MILLION COVID CASES... @ that time, there were 204K deaths.
For an IFR of 0.22%
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
It wasn't QUITE like what they do for flu, b/c they didn't include deaths. But that's easy to find.
At the end of Sept, the CDC estimated there were:
~90 MILLION COVID CASES... @ that time, there were 204K deaths.
For an IFR of 0.22%
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html
3/n
The CDC never makes it easy, so I put the same data that they have for flu next to it.
The sources for all of this data, which again, the CDC could show you all at once, but does not are here:
2017-18 flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20influenza%20was,severe%20seasonal%20influenza%20can%20be.
deaths by age: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-counts-of-deaths-by-jurisdiction-and-age-gr/y5bj-9g5w/
The CDC never makes it easy, so I put the same data that they have for flu next to it.
The sources for all of this data, which again, the CDC could show you all at once, but does not are here:
2017-18 flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2017-2018.htm#:~:text=CDC%20estimates%20that%20influenza%20was,severe%20seasonal%20influenza%20can%20be.
deaths by age: https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Weekly-counts-of-deaths-by-jurisdiction-and-age-gr/y5bj-9g5w/
4/n
I also thought you might be curious as to how this compared to the Imperial College estimates that got us into this mess, so I put those there for you to compare, too.
I also thought you might be curious as to how this compared to the Imperial College estimates that got us into this mess, so I put those there for you to compare, too.
5/n
So to re-cap, what we're looking at is:
IFR of 0.22%, 0.26% for symptomatic illness.
Under 18: 0.001% (less than flu)
18-49: 0.02% (~same as flu)
50-65: 0.21% (5x flu--VAX THESE GUYS!)
65+: 1.8% (2.6x flu)
But the vast majority of our vaxes are going to under 50.
So to re-cap, what we're looking at is:
IFR of 0.22%, 0.26% for symptomatic illness.
Under 18: 0.001% (less than flu)
18-49: 0.02% (~same as flu)
50-65: 0.21% (5x flu--VAX THESE GUYS!)
65+: 1.8% (2.6x flu)
But the vast majority of our vaxes are going to under 50.
6/n
That was more than 2 months ago. How many have had it now? 120 million?
There are only 100 million people in the US at elevated risk for this.
120 M + 100 M = 220M, or ~65% of the pop.
If we were vaccinating the right people, we'd be done with this.
We're not. Why?
That was more than 2 months ago. How many have had it now? 120 million?
There are only 100 million people in the US at elevated risk for this.
120 M + 100 M = 220M, or ~65% of the pop.
If we were vaccinating the right people, we'd be done with this.
We're not. Why?
