The pundits spent 2018 portraying impeachment as a magic wand, and opportunistically attacking the Democrats for not waving it. Pelosi had to impeach Trump just so everyone could see what impeachment really was. As we head into another impeachment, let's remember those lessons.
Impeachment is a complex multi step process that is designed to take a long time. House Democrats are currently cutting every corner they can, but it's still not some instant process.
When the House impeaches Trump, it places literally no restraints on him of any kind. He's not magically barred from taking this or that action in office, no matter how many nonsensical tweets about the magic power of impeachment go viral.
Once the House has impeached Trump, it cannot magically force the Republican Senate to hold an impeachment trial in a timely manner, or even hold a trial at all. That's up to the Senate majority, which we don't have quite yet.
The Senate can convict Trump, remove him immediately, and bar him from ever holding office again. But that requires 67 votes, which would involve many Republican Senators. It's not the Democrats' fault that these Republican idiots are in the Senate.
Democrats will have 50 Senators in about a week, once Warnock and Ossoff are sworn in. But they won't take *control* of the Senate until Biden and Kamala are also sworn in, giving them a 51-50 de facto majority. So Georgia's senate certification is irrelevant to removing Trump.
After the Democrats take majority control of the Senate on January 20th, they can hold an impeachment trial in any timeframe and manner they like. But is also out of office that day, so the trial would be about curtailing Trump's future, not about removing him.
Even after January 20th, the Democrats will only have 50 votes for convicting Trump. They'd need 17 Republican Senators on board with convicting him and barring him from holding office again. Will that happen? Who knows. Such a vote is a lifetime away right now.
For now, the point of rushing this impeachment against Trump is to force him to stop his current antics and focus on mounting an impeachment hearing defense, and to place additional public pressure on Pence to invoke the 25th. Impeachment is not a means to an end on its own.
The big picture: whatever happens over the next nine days, at the end of it Trump will be out of office and eligible for arrest. New York already has a grand jury going against him. The more poorly Trump behaves these next nine days, the sooner his arrest will likely come.
It's fine to push the Democrats to use every angle they have against Trump. But you'll only hobble the Democrats if you start criticizing them for not doing magical or impossible things to stop Trump. It's more crucial than ever to remain reality based over this next week.
And while you're at it, make a mental note of any pundits who try to paint this week's impeachment as a magic wand so they can score cheap points by criticizing the Democrats for not waving it. These aren't the pundits you'll learn anything by listening to.
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