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How bad have North Dakota's COVID numbers been? Let's take a peek at nationwide data. 1/x
The state leads the country in cases per capita (~12,500 cases per 100k residents). I've seen chatter that this is just because of ND's small population, which gives a single positive test outsize power to push the per-capita rate of infection upward. Is that true? 2/x
Let's chart it out. If we plot out every state's population against its per-capita COVID rate, we should find that all the little states have high per-capita numbers, right? Because one case in a tiny state affects the rate way more than in, say, CA. 3/x
Bzzt. Wrongo. There's *incredible* variability in small states' infections per capita. ND, in the red circle, is at the tippy-top — the very worst — closely followed by SD.
But VT, HI, ME are all at the bottom. 4/x
But VT, HI, ME are all at the bottom. 4/x
Why is that? There's another argument that North Dakota "did more than anyone else to look" for COVID cases, and that our huge per-capita rate is because we did a ton of testing.
So let's chart out every state's tests per 100K v Cases per 100k.
Hey look! No correlation! 5/x
So let's chart out every state's tests per 100K v Cases per 100k.
Hey look! No correlation! 5/x
So what accounts for this? Well, let's look at one of the biggest differences between ND/SD and HI/ME/VT. This is from a November NYT chart that relied on Oxford University analysis: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/18/us/covid-state-restrictions.html
North Dakota's COVID surge was not a trick of the data: it was a real crisis, and very likely a man-made one.
Whether you choose to frame this around the choices of political leaders or individuals is up to you. But don't pass it off on the numbers. (Fin)
Whether you choose to frame this around the choices of political leaders or individuals is up to you. But don't pass it off on the numbers. (Fin)
(A postcript on chart sources: cases totals are accurate of this AM to the COVID Tracking Project, with case rates computed using 2019 US Census population estimates. Tests per capita are from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center, also from this AM.)
