$FB's risks, worth having a look at. https://twitter.com/CobraGlobal/status/1348596713641144320

Another interesting thread about the problems $FB is facing and how it may play out. https://twitter.com/borrowed_ideas/status/1348418663393742850?s=20

Turning the question around, North American users are 9-10% of MAUs while they drive 47-50% of total revenue.

ARPU from North American users is 10x APAC's ARPU (42.5% of MAUs) and 18x ROTW's ARPU (33% of MAUs). $FB https://twitter.com/borrowed_ideas/status/1348418668997337095?s=20

I'm not saying that they can achieve the same level of ARPU, but what if ARPU from APAC and ROTW just doubles? I don't think that North America is a key focus of $FB, to me they are a play on emerging markets.

The thing is that even if North American users completely disappear, $FB will be fine if the can keep driving the growth in emerging markets. Plus, I don't think North Am users are going to vanish, I think that the MAUs will remain kind of stable as the mature segment it is.

Many people fail to realize that $FB is a mature business, Zuck is using the cash flows it generates to follow other growth drivers (emerging markets, ecommerce, payments integration, and the eventual jackpot: a VR platform like iOS is for phones, he wants to own the hardware).