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You are indeed missing a lot Gregg:
1) what matters is not the the fraction per se but the impact that 1 imported case has on local transmission and local deaths. Most of the incomers are from the diaspora, suffices that one person meets with friends and family... https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/status/1348311032977108992
1) what matters is not the the fraction per se but the impact that 1 imported case has on local transmission and local deaths. Most of the incomers are from the diaspora, suffices that one person meets with friends and family... https://twitter.com/glcarlstrom/status/1348311032977108992
2) ...and local transmission is thrown into a new dynamic. R0 is >1 in Lebanon, the virus circulates more, hence the more people enter the pool, the more people will be infected, every new incomer transmits it to 3 new people; some transmit it to more (super-spreaders) ..
3) in December alone, there were 680 new cases from the diaspora, multiply this by 3 (average R0) you get 2,040 cases that count --and this is where people get confused--as "locally" transmitted. These 2k become 6K, 18K, 54K, 162K ...all count as "local", you get the point.
4) According to a recent model published in The Lancet, Lebanon should reduce its passenger numbers by 40-75% to bring the proportion of total incidence due to imported cases to less than 1% but ...
5) ...and this is the most important point, countries on the tipping point of an exponential growth (which is currently the case in Lebanon; in fact the exponential growth is "engagé" as the French would say) should implement stricter border closures ...
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30263-2/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30263-2/fulltext
6) but since we know compliance is low (strict isolation/quarantine is not respected), immediate closure is the most sensible thing to do, especially given the saturation of hospitals.
Now 1 week is clearly not enough & this should be the focus of the debate.
Now 1 week is clearly not enough & this should be the focus of the debate.
