All of this information comes from multiple sources who have seen the modelling, which was presented to cabinet on Friday.
However, the Ford government is not planning to release it publicly until tomorrow, nor announce any new restrictions until tomorrow. #COVID19Ontario
Sources say the modelling suggests Ontario is on track to report an average of 6,000 new cases of #COVID19 daily before the end of this month. That would be 10X as high as the peak of the first wave. #COVID19Ontario
The modelling forecasts that Ontario's intensive care units will be filled beyond capacity by early February. Hospital ICUs can handle ≈2000 patients; baseline occupancy of non-COVID patients ≈1200. Modelling says 800-1000 #COVID19 patients expected in early Feb #COVID19Ontario
Two expert sources tell me they question why Ford is sounding so shocked by the new modelling, as it is well in line with previous warnings from Ontario's #COVID19 science advisory table about where the province was headed. #COVID19Ontario
https://covid19-sciencetable.ca/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Evidence-on-COVID-19-Pandemic_2020.12.18-Final-1.pdf
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