Our new #openaccess paper is out! Effects of climate change and land cover on the distributions of a critical tree family in the #Philippines https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79491-9 by @S_PangEH @ELWEcology and myself via @SciReports #dipterocarps #MaxEnt #SDM #SoutheastAsia @APELabNUS 1/9

Here, we modelled species distributions of dipterocarps, an important tree family that are key to maintaining structure and function of tropical #forests in SE Asia, to understand potential impacts of #deforestation and #climatechange on their current and future distributions. /2

Note that for #MaxEnt #SDMs, we incorporated current land cover as a post-hoc correction to restrict future projections (i.e., current scenario and two 2070 RCP climate scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) onto intact habitats. More details of the methods here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-79491-9#Sec2

Results: (1) #landcover correction alone reduced current species distributions by a median 67% & within PAs by 37%; (2) after LC correction, #climatechange reduced national-level species distributions by a median 16% (RCP4.5) & 27% (RCP8.5), with similar losses within PAs. /4

(3) There was a detectable upward elevation shift of species distributions (suitable habitat losses < 300m & gains > 600m). More importantly, species-rich stable areas of continued habitat suitability (or climate macrorefugia) fell largely outside current PA delineations. /5

Our findings highlight a critical gap in the current #Philippines national protected areas system in that it covers a relatively small proportion of suitable habitat for #dipterocarps currently and under both future RCP climate scenarios. @DENROfficial @CCCPHL #NIPAS /6

The study indicates a need to improve PA planning by incorporating SDM projections to safeguard climate macrorefugia, thereby ensuring protection of species both now & in the future given the large projected shifts in climatic conditions for PAs globally. @DENROfficial @CCCPHL /7

We thank Ma Rovelyn Tumaneng and @roventumaneng for sharing photos of tropical forests and dipterocarp trees taken in the Philippines. We also acknowledge @MOEsg and @NUSingapore for funding part of this research #NUSResearch #NUSInnovation /8

Please share with your networks! Ping @BiodiversityPH @FPEtweets @ASEANBiodiv @ABiodiversity @PhBiodiversity @ntfp_ep @flipscienceph @conservationph @GoHaribon @climate_asia @globaltrees @ForestPlots @GTA_GTSG @NUSResearch @kristinesabillo @audreytrp /9