#Bitcoin & Market update

1/n

tl;dr: I expect a bull trap and a further dip towards 30K
Good news: this will result in a more sustainable bull market

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2/n $BTC crashed!

No higher low and higher high and a further dip wasn’t bought up. These were the signals we needed to see for the next leg up and we did not get them

This one hurt me too, I thought we had a strong reversal candle, no follow through unfortunately, SLs hit

3/n What am I seeing? (1/2)

- Market feels weak, significant sell pressure and not enough buy pressure
- Inflows to exchanges went up significantly (miner inflows?)
- I see some FUD on tether (= probably FUD, will address this later)

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4/n What am I seeing? (2/2)

- Funding still high but could get down soon
- 2bn in liquidations but not max pain yet

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5/n What’s next? (1/2)

Normally with these kind of drops we always get a bull trap

A trap to the .618 - . 786 fibs is to be expected (see chart), let’s be conservative and let’s make it 38K

We could get it now or dip a bit further and then make the bull trap

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6/n What’s next? (2/2)

After the bull trap, I think we head down again, a wick towards 30K makes a logical target.

I could be wrong, it all depends on the buy pressure. Will buyers step up significantly and buy dips?

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7/n the good news:

In the end this correction is healthy and will pave the way for a more sustainable bull market, that’s the good news!

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8/n What am I looking for?

- We need to see buyers step up, buy dips and the sell pressure to get less

- If we head down and this becomes a longer and larger correction bull divs on RSI, esp on the 4hr is what I’m looking for. RSI bull div in oversold territory would be a gift

9/n For now: I’ve traded the dip but will be selling the bull trap hoping to reload lower

Unless I see very strong signals then after a potential bull trap I’m bearish short term

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10/n finally, the tether FUD

The past 4-5 years, there has always been FUD surrounding USDT

And it always stayed FUD and blew over

THE END!

11/n

Kidding...

So, a couple more thoughts:

I don’t buy into the whole money laundering narrative
They know they would get caught, these players have to KYC, it doesn’t make sense to me

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12/n furthermore, in the end more regulated stablecoins like USDC will take market share and all will be fine.

However, it’s not about what I think. It’s about what the market thinks and a lot of entrants in this market don’t have the background to get grip on this narrative

13/n therefore, this could mean that if this becomes a large FUD narrative that will result in more sell pressure

Something to keep a watch on and be mindful of

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14/ closing off

All in all a healthy correction

There are some dynamics at play that could turn this in a longer correction, I haven't addressed the "January effect" yet, perhaps in another post.

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15/n for now I expect a bull trap and a dip lower

After that I want to see strong buy pressure with bull div

Only way to know what will happen is to closely monitor all dynamic, we know what to look out for in terms of validation / invalidation

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