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1. This is India’s way of saying: “we hope that a ceasefire is attained & talks at Doha deliver a sustainable agreement. But we’re not counting on either of that for now, & will side w/ Kabul if the situation worsens”. Short thread. https://theprint.in/diplomacy/india-could-boost-military-assistance-to-afghanistan-as-taliban-peace-talks-resume-in-doha/582991/
2. India’s mil. support to Afghanistan has never been huge. But it’s symbolically potent, & provocative for Pakistan. Given how stretched India is militarily, what it offers Kabul won’t change the mil. tide in Af. But it *might* offer a lifeline to India’s allies.
3. Unlike 1990s, when India operated along partisan lines against Pak-Taliban w/ support from Moscow & Tehran, this time it’ll have fewer regional partners. Even if Iran & Russia sympathise w/ N. Delhi, they are unlikely to weigh in w/ adequate resources to counter the Taliban.
4. But, neither Moscow nor Tehran want an Islamic Emirate in Af (space India might exploit). The sec & pol implications of that scenario are too dire for both countries, their flirting w/ Taliban notwithstanding. This piece covers the aspect in detail: https://warontherocks.com/2020/09/a-new-look-at-irans-complicated-relationship-with-the-taliban/
5. India’s calculation for now, it seems, has two elements (a) N Delhi doesn’t want to be seen as an opportunist abandoning allies — even if it later changes policy position akin to its ‘92 embrace of Mujahideen. (b) Signal to Pakistan: you’ll be left w/ a costly, violent, mess.
