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One of the things that I think often goes overlooked is rookie draft age.
I am not trying to imply your favorite player *coughdevontasmithcough* isn't good. I'm just showing you hit rates.
So, lets DIVE IN!
I am not trying to imply your favorite player *coughdevontasmithcough* isn't good. I'm just showing you hit rates.
So, lets DIVE IN!
Lets start at the beginning.
I have 361 WR's that have been drafted in my database from 03-'18 with a draft age. These are the rates in which they hit:
Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%
I have 361 WR's that have been drafted in my database from 03-'18 with a draft age. These are the rates in which they hit:
Top 12 - 54/361 = 15%
Top 24 - 81/361 = 22%
First we'll look at the age breakdown for all rounds combined.
Age 23 or older:
Top 12 - 12/137 = 9%
Top 24 - 18/137 = 13%
Age 23 or older:
Top 12 - 12/137 = 9%
Top 24 - 18/137 = 13%
Age 22:
Top 12 - 18/156 = 12%
Top 24 - 32/156 = 21%
Top 12 - 18/156 = 12%
Top 24 - 32/156 = 21%
Age 21 or less:
Top 12 - 24/68 = 35%
Top 24 - 31/68 = 46%
Top 12 - 24/68 = 35%
Top 24 - 31/68 = 46%
It is pretty clear that age 21 players are higher odds of hitting, but you are smart enough to realize that age 21 players are probably the early declares and players dont declare early unless they are likely getting drafted early....
You're probably thinking that its the age 22 and 23+ kids filling up day 3 while all the 21 year olds are going early. So its not comparable?
So lets control for draft capital and see if that has an impact?
So lets control for draft capital and see if that has an impact?
Nobody really cares about these day 3 WR's so we'll just do all day 3 guys in one shot:
Age 23 and up day 3 picks:
Top 12 - 2/87 = 2%
Top 24 - 4/87 = 5%
Age 23 and up day 3 picks:
Top 12 - 2/87 = 2%
Top 24 - 4/87 = 5%
Age 22, day 3 picks:
Top 12 - 5/68 = 7%
Top 24 - 9/68 = 13%
Top 12 - 5/68 = 7%
Top 24 - 9/68 = 13%
Age 21, day 3 picks:
Top 12 - 2/19 = 11%
Top 24 - 2/19 = 11%
So on day 3, avoid the old guys and just stick to the age 22 and 21 and under cohort.
Top 12 - 2/19 = 11%
Top 24 - 2/19 = 11%
So on day 3, avoid the old guys and just stick to the age 22 and 21 and under cohort.
Now lets get into the good stuff.
Round 3, Age 23 and up:
Top 12 - 5/30 = 17%
Top 24 - 8/30 = 27%
Round 3, Age 23 and up:
Top 12 - 5/30 = 17%
Top 24 - 8/30 = 27%
Round 3, Age 22:
Top 12 - 2/28= 7%
Top 24 - 4/28 = 14%
Top 12 - 2/28= 7%
Top 24 - 4/28 = 14%
Round 3, Age 21 and under:
Top 12 - 2/9 = 22%
Top 24 - 3/9 = 33%
Strangely enough, avoid the age 22's in round 3?
That is probably just a variance thing due to small samples
Top 12 - 2/9 = 22%
Top 24 - 3/9 = 33%
Strangely enough, avoid the age 22's in round 3?
That is probably just a variance thing due to small samples
Round 2, Age 23 and up:
Top 12 - 2/12 = 17%
Top 24 - 2/12 = 17%
Top 12 - 2/12 = 17%
Top 24 - 2/12 = 17%
Round 2, Age 22:
Top 12 - 6/29 = 21%
Top 24 - 9/29 = 31%
Top 12 - 6/29 = 21%
Top 24 - 9/29 = 31%
Round 2, Age 21 and under:
Top 12 - 8/20 = 40%
Top 24 - 11/20 = 55%
Round 2 is pretty overwhelmingly Age 21's.
Top 12 - 8/20 = 40%
Top 24 - 11/20 = 55%
Round 2 is pretty overwhelmingly Age 21's.
Round 1, Age 23 and up:
Top 12 - 3/8 = 38%
Top 24 - 4/8 = 50%
Top 12 - 3/8 = 38%
Top 24 - 4/8 = 50%
Round 1, Age 22:
Top 12 - 5/31 = 16%
Top 24 - 10/31 = 32%
Top 12 - 5/31 = 16%
Top 24 - 10/31 = 32%
Round 1, Age 21 and under:
Top 12 - 12/20 = 60%
Top 24 - 15/20 = 75%
Top 12 - 12/20 = 60%
Top 24 - 15/20 = 75%
and some of y'all want to take 22 year old's over 21 year old's in the first round?
