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Think people dramatically underestimate how our broken domestic politics will make foreign policy more difficult.
I don't mean reputational harm, though that will be real. Something subtler and more important. Our post WW2 policy consensus was based on some basic agreements on priorities and interests.
And, notably, that consensus included the systematic exclusion of black people (and women) from the political community.
Post cold war, economic growth made it easy to paper over the eroding consensus. The Republican Revolution made it impossible. 9/11 rescued us from a reconning by giving us a new enemy.
But now, post GWOT, the previously excluded want in. The shrinking majority is scared. And there's little agreement on America's purpose in the world.
Two premises: 1, foreign policy is an extension of domestic policy. 2, neither party is likely to have a lock on the presidency or the congress for the foreseeable future.
That means that every four years, there's a decent chance of sognificant change in US foreign policy. And congress may be in a position to stymie initiatives, block treaties, etc.
That makes it very difficult for a president to make promises. As my friend @MattFay1 says, "the ability to make credible commitments is the coin of the realm in foreign policy." Best recent example? The Iran nuclear deal.
DOD has a tougher time planning and investing in mil- mil rels. Diplomats are always working to explain away the latest policy flip. We lose the thread on what the big threats are as domestic actors use foreign policy issues for domestic leverage regardless of the impact.
After all, why should Josh Hawley care if China is confused? They aren't voting for his presidential bid!
Trade policy is another example - tarrifs on european steel. On imports from china. All in service of domestic audiences.
Now we have half the country willing to toss out decades of alliances, entire schools of thought on how to defend the country.
Not to mention the foreign policy takes presidential time. And that's in short supply when the other side is perfectly willing to overturn elections.
Thing is, we had about 70 years of a relatively narrow range of domestic political debate. And broad consensus on what constituted threats and interests. That's all changing. And it will be to the detriment of our global standing.
