Just FYI, the Senate needs a two-thirds vote to convict on impeachment, but disqualification from ever again holding office is a straight-up majority vote.

I apparently need to clarify this. Conviction is the prerequisite for punishment. You need to get a super majority to agree with the House articles. You don't need later for disqualifying.

It's still important to keep in mind, especially given the timing. Not hard to imagine a Republican willing to concede guilt on the articles but unwilling to bar the soon to be former president from running again.

In other words, Senators would face two questions. (1) Is the President guilty of impeachable stuff? (2) Should he be barred from office for life? It's impossible to say no on (1) with a straight face and Congress doesn't need R votes on (2).

So it's a historically interesting situation. You need R votes on guilt, but essentially not on punishment as his term will be expired or nearly so and it's a majority for disqualification.

Remember, several GOP Senators in the last impeachment said they had concluded Trump was guilty but that they couldn't vote to convict because they thought (not unreasonably) it would be imprudent to remove him. This time, the question of guilt and penalty will not be bundled.