Thought of the day after reading feedback from today's WW video...long range outlooks are not written as "if A then B" - they are probabilistic. I think the common person reading them feels they are "deterministic" and expect a 4-week lead temperature outlook to be 100% on point.

In other words, there's going to be changes and adjustments week to week sometimes as the pattern evolves. This should be expected. The less of a time frame we're speaking about, the better they are...but this is the reason I don't do seasonal stuff. LR = probability-based.

Simple way of explaining this, if I have a quarter and flip it in the air, it has a 50% chance of landing on heads and a 50% chance of landing on tails. Probabilistic. Many reading long-range outlooks expect it to land on heads 100% of the time. Deterministic, and unrealistic.

So when we do the long-range charts and list confidence levels, they mean:

Very high = 90%+
High = 75%+
Moderately high = 60%+
Moderate = 50/50
Moderately low = <40%
Low = <25%
Very low = <10%

This represents our confidence in likelihood of occurrence for the period listed.