Warning signs in #SriLanka flashing red as country heads into difficult 2021 w/virtually no protections against return to political & ethno-religious violence. What remains of battered intl system for conflict prevention & protection of basic rights needs to be activated now. 1/

1. President, frustrated as COVID & economy refuse to bend to his will, angered at growing public discontent & criticism, & emboldened by constitutional changes giving him virtually unlimited power, threatens return to using violence against opponents. 2/ https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/president-insinuates-he-is-capable-of-having-me-killed-like-a-dog-harin-writes-to-igp/

2. Rule of law institutions already largely dismantled in 2020: independent institutions & oversight bodies under direct presidential control; police & judiciary deployed for political purposes; honest cops, opposition pols & civil society critics in jail or at risk of jail. 3/

3. As military is placed in charge of ever-larger portions of civil administration & empowered financially & symbolically, impunity for decades of grave human rights violations & political crimes by the state is entrenched further; role for intl rights institutions rejected. 4/

4. Govt (& pro-govt media) use COVID fear to continue relentless campaign to humiliate & provoke Muslims, under severe pressure since 2012 by violent extremists claiming to defend Buddhism; denial of burial rights angering many Muslims - but also generating peaceful protest. 5/

5. Govt bent on keeping investigations into horrific ISIS-inspired Easter massacres on TV & phone screens. As evidence of partisan politicisation of police investigations grows, along w/ circumstantial evidence of possible mil intel involvement, upcoming trials pose risks. 6/

6. Economy in dire straits due to COVID-related loss of tourism, remittances & exports – and long-standing & now unsustainable debt burden. Default looms without painful IMF bailout. Will Muslim/ISIS and/or Tamil/LTTE threat be deployed to distract from economic suffering? 7/

7. #SriLanka history of ethnic pogroms, state & anti-state terror & atrocities – anti-Tamil "riots" (1958, '77, '79, '83) JVP (1971, 1988-90), LTTE/Tamil militancy (1976-2009), anti-Muslim "riots" (2014, '18, '19) & ISIS-inspired terror (2019) - leaves no room for complacency. 8/

The UN Human Rights Council has proven a weak tool for protecting rights & achieving accountability & reconciliation in #SriLanka, but its forthcoming session in Feb/March still offers a crucial platform for member states to send clear messages of restraint to #SriLanka govt. 9/

In addition to a strong resolution maintaining @UNHumanRights monitoring of rights situation in #SriLanka & urging states to pursue universal jurisdiction, all other forms of int'l leverage must be used to persuade SL govt to pull back from its current dangerous trajectory. 10/10

No one can say they weren't warned. https://twitter.com/Newshub_lk/status/1347919010352881666?s=20