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If 2M vaccinated already, and another 1M plus are vaccinated over the next week, then 40% of the total mortality risk from COVID should be eliminated within 3 weeks https://twitter.com/ReutersScience/status/1348226863907418112
According to this Harry Lambert article, 3.3M over 85s acct for 40% of the mortality risk. If we are vaccinating at 200k a day and have already vaccinated 2M, then we shld be at 3.4M this time next week.Then add 10 days-2wks for immune response to kick in https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2020/12/how-covid-19-vaccines-could-rapidly-reduce-uk-s-death-rate
If we continue to vaccinate at 2M a week then 75% of mortality risk is eliminated within another 5 weeks after that (3 weeks to pass another 6M vaccinated, covering all over 75s, 2 weeks for their immune responses to kick in)
Couple of addenda to this. Its true lots of the early vaccines are going to healthcare workers. IDK what share - anyone have data on that? This will push the dates in Q back a bit. OTOH, I have assumed 200k a day and govt's stated ambition of 2M a week would be rather faster
at nearly 300k per day. Plus I'd expect the pace of vaccination to increase steadily as bottlenecks are eliminated, production ramps up etc. So that could push speed at which mortality risk is eliminated up.
All of this is back of the envelope stuff. I'm sure smarter ppl with better data like @ActuaryByDay will produce more precise estimates on an ongoing basis. Point is, elimination of 50% plus of the COVID mortality risk could easily be achieved within a month on current trajectory
Addendum 2 - yes this refers only to risk among those who haven't already caught it & don't catch it before they are jabbe
Addendum 3 - yes this is immunity assumed from first jabs. Trials showed those to have high efficacy.
Addendum 3 - yes this is immunity assumed from first jabs. Trials showed those to have high efficacy.
Addendum 4 - no this won't be anywhere near sufficient to reduce pressure on NHS, which is mainly driven by younger COVID patients less likely to die. That will continue for several months at least I suspect.
