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vaccination
what is the objective?
I have seen two possible objectives presented
1 - eradicate the virus, e.g., get to herd immunity
2 - stop people from dying from the virus
what is the objective?
I have seen two possible objectives presented
1 - eradicate the virus, e.g., get to herd immunity
2 - stop people from dying from the virus
getting to herd immunity will stop people from dying
but only indirectly
because the virus unambiguously does not kill indiscriminately
and we know who is most susceptible to dying from the virus
once those people have been vaccinated the dying from the virus goes almost to zero
but only indirectly
because the virus unambiguously does not kill indiscriminately
and we know who is most susceptible to dying from the virus
once those people have been vaccinated the dying from the virus goes almost to zero
all data below is from the CDC
current as of 1/6/2021 for deaths
and current as of 1/8/2021 for vaccinations
per the CDC the population of the US is 328,239,523
I have seen different estimates for when herd immunity is achieved
a common estimate is when 75% of people are immune
current as of 1/6/2021 for deaths
and current as of 1/8/2021 for vaccinations
per the CDC the population of the US is 328,239,523
I have seen different estimates for when herd immunity is achieved
a common estimate is when 75% of people are immune
if so then we will have achieved herd immunity in the US when 246,179,642 people are immune
immunizing each of those people once, let alone twice
is going to be a tough hill to climb
and may be infeasible
immunizing each of those people once, let alone twice
is going to be a tough hill to climb
and may be infeasible
but, if stopping the vast majority of deaths caused by the virus is the objective
then a different picture emerges
per the CDC
32% of deaths attributed to the virus in the US have been among residents 85 years of age and older
how many of these people are there
6,604,958
then a different picture emerges
per the CDC
32% of deaths attributed to the virus in the US have been among residents 85 years of age and older
how many of these people are there
6,604,958
times 2 = 13,209,916 doses of the vaccine needed in order to generate a 32% reduction in deaths
6,688,231 doses have already been administered
but, not, for various reasons, exclusively to this target population
22,137,350 doses have been distributed
more than enough?
6,688,231 doses have already been administered
but, not, for various reasons, exclusively to this target population
22,137,350 doses have been distributed
more than enough?
27% of deaths associated with the virus has been among people 75 through 84 years of age
in the US this populations numbers 15,969,872 people
so add these people and future deaths are potentially reduced by 59%
in, ideally, the next three to four weeks
and so it goes, by age
in the US this populations numbers 15,969,872 people
so add these people and future deaths are potentially reduced by 59%
in, ideally, the next three to four weeks
and so it goes, by age
herd immunity is a laudable
and highly improbable objective
certainly in anything looking like the near term
which should be neither surprising nor particularly alarming
the list of viruses that have been eradicated is very short
globally eradicated
that's a list of two
and highly improbable objective
certainly in anything looking like the near term
which should be neither surprising nor particularly alarming
the list of viruses that have been eradicated is very short
globally eradicated
that's a list of two
"smallpox and rinderpest, which infects cattle."
That's it.
"In the United States, a long list of diseases have been *nearly* eradicated by vaccines: diphtheria, bacterial influenza, measles, mumps, rubella, and tetanus, among others."
emphasis added
That's it.
"In the United States, a long list of diseases have been *nearly* eradicated by vaccines: diphtheria, bacterial influenza, measles, mumps, rubella, and tetanus, among others."
emphasis added
So, this virus will be around for a long, long time
Let's focus our efforts not on eradicating the virus, per se
but instead on preventing it from killing people
and the way to do that right is very clear
and not an insurmountable challenge
quite the contrary
Let's focus our efforts not on eradicating the virus, per se
but instead on preventing it from killing people
and the way to do that right is very clear
and not an insurmountable challenge
quite the contrary
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