7/ CEO Matze has family connections to Russia. We should assume he is getting offers of hosting there. If he hosts Parler there, it becomes open to NSA surveillance. If he accepts material support from Russia in support of sedition here, it could be seen as treason. Hm.

8/ Additionally any material relationship with Russian interests would require registration under FARA § 951. And all this in the context of having dead, banned apps, with only a web UX for distribution. With users leaving in droves, and funds draining rapidly.

9/ Other bad actor hosts like the Jim Watkins/VanWaTech group are likely also offering to help. They are enabled by a company called CNSERVERS in Vancouver, WA. Guess what ‘CN’ stands for? You guessed it. Their infrastructure is sometimes backed by assets in Russia/China.

10/ Watkins/VanWa hosts a lot of awful stuff including brand-name Nazi sites, a range of MAGA stuff, and borderline child porn. They are able to keep this online because they use a Netherlands based firm to protect against distributed denial of service (DDOS) attacks.

11/ It is possible that Matze and Mercer will join the Watkins portfolio of well-known Nazis and White Supremacists. But Bekah doesn’t generally enjoy that kind of limelight. I suspect she will decline to go this route.

The sane answer is to GIVE UP. Here is why.

12/ Parler can never be a viable business, realistically. Even Twitter has struggled to make money, and it’s faaar bigger and more established. In fact, Parler is so far away from being able to make money, Mercers had to know that it would never do so. So why pursue it at all?

13/ They built Parler for multiple reasons.

1: the user data; this is part of the same Cambridge Analytica data play they started years ago and which continues with firms like Gloo et al, 2: they wished to challenge § 230 of the Comms. Decency Act, 3: to radicalize people.

14/ So they now have a lot of data. Section 230 is likely to be visited for revision at some point soon. And people are now more radicalized than they were. Their app is dead. Their hosting is done. People are onto them, their funding and Russia connections. Time to stop.

15/ Rebekah Mercer is not stupid. Her sister is a professional poker player. They saw this “company” as a round of poker designed to provoke certain outcomes, with high upsides and low downsides. That round of poker is at a natural stopping point.

https://www.wsop.com/players/profile/?playerID=85013

16/ Should Matze/Wernick/Bongino/Peikoff decide to soldier on and go full zombie mode, they can try to do that. They probably can’t do so without Mercer support. Or material help from foreign nationals. Any US person risks sedition charges. And indeed, so do they.

17/ Given the near zero possibility of survival, I assess that all involved will likely terminate this kamikaze mission, take the data they harvested, use it for future ops, share it with the Russian government in trade for something, and move on to a new venture.

18/ If for some reason they decide to do the unwise thing and try to survive this, their upstream ISP and DDOS protection vendor will become targets of derision, public pressure, and investigation by law enforcement.

For all these reasons, I think Parler ends today.

END

AND for those of you who did not see the viral thread I did in November on #Parler's improbable founding story, opaque funding, and Matze's ties to Russia, please check it out here! https://twitter.com/davetroy/status/1327253991936454663?s=20