A platitude of 2020 was that the coronavirus isolated North Korea in a way that sanctions never could. Bob Woodward quoted Matt Pottinger saying as much in his book [in Feb I think!], & I seem to recall the @nytimes putting it that way too.

The freefall in reported trade volumes w/ China and testimony by intl aid groups on difficulty of getting even humanitarian aid, incld COVID stuff, into North Korea support the premise that 'the pandemic did what even maximum pressure at its 2017 peak could not.'

And yet-- AND HERE IS THE POINT-- take a peek at Kim Jong Un's birthday speech. Does it sound to you like a guy desperate to trade his nuclear weapons for sanctions relief? A leader whose 'choices finally sharpened' (to use the Obama-ism)? Really? https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/08/world/asia/kim-nuclear-north-korea.html

So look I'm not saying just lift sanctions and everything is fixed. Targeted counter-proliferation sanctions obviously important. But quit the illusion that economic coercion is politically or strategically useful. Counterproductive at best. Mollusk bans aint gonna solve this one

Fear of COVID in 2020 forced Kim to do what a decade plus of UN Security Council, US Treasury, and South Korean "May 24th" [2010] sanctions could not... and Kim's speech tells you the result. Pride in the strategic deterrent they have & plans for future improvements [ugh].

It should be liberating, in a way, for Team Biden-Harris as they step up to the plate, this clarity about the limits of coercion.