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FOLKS—if you think #COVID19 cases is really bad in the US, it is even more epically surging in the UK 
& Ireland 
. I made a short video... and highlighted the simultaneous rise in the more contagious b117 variant. Denmark CDC thinks B117 will become dominant strain by Feb. 
& Ireland . I made a short video... and highlighted the simultaneous rise in the more contagious b117 variant. Denmark CDC thinks B117 will become dominant strain by Feb.
2) the new variant B117 is now 25% of all cases in Ireland last week. Up form 9% 2 weeks before that. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348060175517806592
3) This needs to be a lesson for all of us. The Danish CDC is extremely concerned and pessimistic. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249?s=21
4) Basically, Denmark 
’s CDC ( @SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we are completely screwed by spring time.
’s CDC ( @SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we are completely screwed by spring time.
5) To be clear—even if we hold the virus in check with a minimum R=0.96... by the time the new virus variant takes hold, it will be woefully insufficient, since the B117 strain is 40-80% more infectious (multiply current R*1.4 or *1.8). Other experts agree....
6) the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.
But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline.
6x vs old strain.
But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline. 6x vs old strain.
7) basically, what both Denmark CDC and UK @IndependentSage are trying to tell us is that with the B117 variant being 40-80% more infectious... we are totally screwed if we don’t act now. It’s not rhetorical—“pandemic is out of control now”. Get serious or suffer in Feb/March https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346064285978521605
CDC and UK @IndependentSage are trying to tell us is that with the B117 variant being 40-80% more infectious... we are totally screwed if we don’t act now. It’s not rhetorical—“pandemic is out of control now”. Get serious or suffer in Feb/March https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346064285978521605
8) here is a tracker of various major variants worldwide. https://public.tableau.com/profile/brooks.miner#!/vizhome/MapVariants/Dashboard
9) and here is Switzerland’s growth in the B117 variant. It’s exponentially surging too.
10) the new B117 also increases the attack rate across all age groups vs the common strain 30-50%, but especially more among the youngest kids 0-9. See thread for explainer. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347745261670584321
for explainer. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347745261670584321
11) UK also just hit record hospital admission (Figure by @JoePajak).
3rd lockdown just started Jan 5th. It’ll be 2 weeks until cases slow, and then longer for hospitalizations and deaths to slow after. UK is still going to be in trouble.
https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2021/01/10/uk-covid-19-data-10-january-2021/
3rd lockdown just started Jan 5th. It’ll be 2 weeks until cases slow, and then longer for hospitalizations and deaths to slow after. UK is still going to be in trouble.
https://vip.politicsmeanspolitics.com/2021/01/10/uk-covid-19-data-10-january-2021/
12) Bad to worse... B117 now ~45% in Ireland , which has now exceeded UK in daily #COVID19 caseload. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348598047996080128
, which has now exceeded UK in daily #COVID19 caseload. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1348598047996080128
