Read on Twitter
Starting a new thread dedicated to establishing a tick-tock of events for Wednesday's Capitol hill riot:
Articles of impeachment were being drafted while in lock-down sometime after being cleared from the floor https://twitter.com/NBCNews/status/1347644517948776450
At 2pm Trump was personally calling Senators still negotiating for objections https://twitter.com/RexDouglass/status/1347717087599333377
First barricade breached at 1:15ish
National guard requested at 2ish
Activated at 2:30ish https://twitter.com/RexDouglass/status/1347432570380709889?s=20
National guard requested at 2ish
Activated at 2:30ish https://twitter.com/RexDouglass/status/1347432570380709889?s=20
Day before, D.C. mayor publicly discourages any additional federal presence, assuring that MPD, Secret Service, Park Police, D.C. Nat Guard, and Capitol Police would be sufficient. https://twitter.com/MayorBowser/status/1346530358674792466?s=19
500 federal agents responded after the breach, including FBI SWAT team agents who had been waiting on standby.
Later on request Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. https://www.wsj.com/articles/actions-by-police-before-trump-supporters-attacked-capitol-backfired-spectacularly-11610064600?mod=RSSMSN
Later on request Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives. https://www.wsj.com/articles/actions-by-police-before-trump-supporters-attacked-capitol-backfired-spectacularly-11610064600?mod=RSSMSN
Pence and Trump reportedly last spoke Wednesday morning before the riot and haven't since
"Mr. Pence. The president and the vice president have not spoken since Wednesday morning, before the riot unfolded, an administration official said." https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/09/us/trump-biden/trump-has-not-lowered-flags-in-honor-of-an-officer-who-died-from-injuries-sustained-amid-the-riot
"Mr. Pence. The president and the vice president have not spoken since Wednesday morning, before the riot unfolded, an administration official said." https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/09/us/trump-biden/trump-has-not-lowered-flags-in-honor-of-an-officer-who-died-from-injuries-sustained-amid-the-riot
Same source, Pence refused to leave the Capitol during riot
"Mr. Pence was whisked to a secure location at the Capitol as the rioters broke into the building, but rebuffed attempts by the Secret Service to evacuate him."
"Mr. Pence was whisked to a secure location at the Capitol as the rioters broke into the building, but rebuffed attempts by the Secret Service to evacuate him."
Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund reportedly also assured lawmakers Capitol Police could handle the protest in days prior https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-capitol-siege/2021/01/09/e3ad3274-5283-11eb-bda4-615aaefd0555_story.html
^ During the riot, lawmakers and aids directly contacted people throughout gov for help
"texting anyone they thought could help — the secretary of the Army, the acting attorney general, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, governors of nearby states, the D.C. mayor."
"texting anyone they thought could help — the secretary of the Army, the acting attorney general, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, governors of nearby states, the D.C. mayor."
3 days prior, Capitol Police told DOD that it was not requesting national guard for the event
https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/08/2002562063/-1/-1/1/PLANNING-AND-EXECUTION-TIMELINE-FOR-THE-NATIONAL-GUARDS-INVOLVEMENT-IN-THE-JANUARY-6-2021-FIRST-AMENDMENT-PROTESTS-IN-WASHINGTON-DC.pdf
https://media.defense.gov/2021/Jan/08/2002562063/-1/-1/1/PLANNING-AND-EXECUTION-TIMELINE-FOR-THE-NATIONAL-GUARDS-INVOLVEMENT-IN-THE-JANUARY-6-2021-FIRST-AMENDMENT-PROTESTS-IN-WASHINGTON-DC.pdf
Timeline day of
1:05 Act. Sec def briefed
1:26 Capitol Pol order evacuation
1:34 Request for additional forces
1:49 Chief Sund requests immediate assistance
3:00 Sec. Army orders 150 Nat Guard to start moving toward capitol
3:04 Act Sec Def activates the full guard
5:40 First 150 arrive,sworn in
1:26 Capitol Pol order evacuation
1:34 Request for additional forces
1:49 Chief Sund requests immediate assistance
3:00 Sec. Army orders 150 Nat Guard to start moving toward capitol
3:04 Act Sec Def activates the full guard
5:40 First 150 arrive,sworn in
1:00 Joint Session Begins
1:11 Trump speech ends
2:00 Mob reaches capitol
2:07 Breach east steps
2:42 lockdown https://www.npr.org/2021/01/07/954384999/timeline-how-one-of-the-darkest-days-in-american-history-unfolded
1:11 Trump speech ends
2:00 Mob reaches capitol
2:07 Breach east steps
2:42 lockdown https://www.npr.org/2021/01/07/954384999/timeline-how-one-of-the-darkest-days-in-american-history-unfolded
2:11ish Pense evacuated
2:14ish Pelosi evacuated
Sometime after 2:15 FBI Deputy Director David Bowdich orders the first of three tactical teams from the Washington field office
2:14ish Pelosi evacuated
Sometime after 2:15 FBI Deputy Director David Bowdich orders the first of three tactical teams from the Washington field office
Just a quick point- none of these timelines agree perfectly and a lot of the political reporting is vague in ways that are contradictory if taken literally.
A small force of 40 troops were on standby in case they were needed, but had coordinated with support D.C. Police and not Capitol Police https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/01/09/military-quick-reaction-force-not-deployed-during-storming-capitol-because-lack-planning-defense-officials-say/
Right now, my read is that like most disasters multiple things failed here:
-A political agreement kept the feds and DOD at arm's length
-Capitol Police were too eager to please and overconfident
-Crowd size was underestimated
-The speed and purpose of the crowd was definitive
-A political agreement kept the feds and DOD at arm's length
-Capitol Police were too eager to please and overconfident
-Crowd size was underestimated
-The speed and purpose of the crowd was definitive
Like most conflicts, there was uncertainty about the balance of power. The crowd started experimenting immediately, learning they had the upper hand. Capitol Police realized almost immediately too, but none of the necessary groundwork had been laid to quickly reinforce.
Unable to reinforce in time, the Capitol Police fought a remarkably brave delaying action. One that gave the Secret Service and personal security details time to safely evacuate the leadership underground with minimal loss of life.
It could have gone very very differently. If the Capitol Police hadn't held as long as they did, many more rioters could have been killed as they crossed the final red line around the principals.
It also could have been much worse if the rioters had brought in guns, explosives, or set fires. Despite the tacti-cool cosplay, the vast majority were mainly protesters turned accidental rioters. Once in the building, there wasn't a plan, leadership, coordination, etc.
As one reporter said, a main question was "where's the bathroom?" Others sought out specific offices to loot. Even inside, they were very hesitant to fight, often being run around or directed by guards in circles/back out of the building. Luckily the building is a confusing maze.
It was incredibly dangerous and damaging, but it also went about as well as it could have given a hopeless tactical situation. Principals were protected. 5 deaths, hundreds of injuries, loss of the building. Primarily bc cops delayed, mob had weak ambitions & reinforcements came.
This video shows the 40 minutes from the breach at the scaffolding to the shooting at the red line of the Speaker's lobby. It shows the delaying tactics, the eb and flow of the mob, getting run around, and the reaction to meeting actual armed resistance.
It's hard to talk about counterfactuals because a lot of this is in equalibrium. The mob didn't want to get shot, and mostly had the stomach for physical fighting. The police proved they would kill if red line was crossed. Once the Principals were underground, it was just cleanup
To get a different outcome, you'd need different ingredients. Say an armed militia or terrorist group mixed in that made a straight line for the leadership. Or no underground escape option + delayed reinforcements. Or an actual coup attempt with security forces switching sides.
I can see those turning into a mass-casualty terror attack, or a hostage situation, or mass-casualty structure fire, an actual attempted regime change, or any number of other nightmares. But I don't see these tourists filing endlessly into gunfire for selfies.
