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1. Vaccinate faster, the current rate is unacceptable
2. It's the German Superwahljahr 2021, so let's have a talk about it
2. It's the German Superwahljahr 2021, so let's have a talk about it
What is the Superjahrwahl you might ask? I'm glad you asked, it's the term given to a year of the Bundestagswahl (federal elections) + a high number of Landtagswahlen (state elections). For reference, there are 6 state elections + the federal elections scheduled for this year
the federal elections are on a 4 year cycle and the state elections on a 5 year cycle. See https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm
Now you might ask why do the State elections matter, because similarly to the US Congress the German federal legislative branch also consists of two chambers on the federal level. Namely the parliament, the Bundestag, and the Bundesrat, which is sorta equivalent to the Senate
but not really either. The point is, the states have between 3-6 votes in the Bundesrat. Both chambers reside in the so called Reichstagsgebäude, which is the name of the building in which the Imperial parliament "the Reichstag" used to reside in. The Reichstagsgebäude has lots
of interesting history and much more nuanced one than is typically acknowledged by English sources, but I really dont want to turn this into a thread about imperial Germany either. Back to topic.
The ballot is split between a first past the post direct vote for a candidate and a proportional party vote. The so called Erststimme and Zweitstimme (1st/2nd vote). The http://Bpb.de created this handy graphic and is a great place to learn more about Germany
There're 299 districts "Wahlkreise" with slightly more than 250k inhabitants each and in order to avoid gerrymandering there are clear rules how those districts are allowed to be redrawn (also a topic for another time). Generally speaking the districts try to follow the
municipal borders if possible (all of this is codified by the constitution and much harder to game than what's possible in the US). For the First time ever the Bundewahlleiter (the federal election office) used an optimization tool conceived by students of Prof. Lübbecke
and then worked out by Dr. Goderbauer of RWTH Aachen. The tool can be found here https://www.or.rwth-aachen.de/wahlkreiskarte/ . The Bundes Wahlleiter finally settled on this map for the elections: https://bundeswahlleiter.de/dam/jcr/b12222b4-c1aa-4d6c-a763-9d6b8e38a8f8/btw21_karte_wahlkreise_a1.pdf
All of this effort is done to avoid outcomes like the ones achieved in England, where the Tories can often win seats with like half the number of votes labour needs per seat, or something ridiculous like that (pure Fpp sucks). Now back to the first and second vote again:
The Zweitstimmen determine the realtive composition of parliament. A party only makes it into parliament if a party passed the 5% threshold, the so called "5% Hürde" (literal: 5% hurdle). If not, tough luck, no seats for you. And no, 4.99% of the popular vote don't suffice.
Now remember those "Erstimmen" which are won on a fpp basis. Imagine a party has won more of these than relatively than "Zweitstimmen", which as we remember are proportional, then the party gets to keep these seats regardless, which is called "Überhangmandate".
The literal translation being "Overhang" seats. In reaction to Overhang seats the other parties are granted additional seats in parliament in proportion to their share of the popular vote as determined by the Zweitstimmen. This dynamic is what's driving the enlargement of
parliament. It didn't used to be much of a problem back in the day when the conservatives and social democrats commanded together 80-90% of the popular vote, but those days are gone. At the moment at least anyway.
The current parliament has around 700 seats (thanks to 100+ overhang seats), but the Reichstagsgebäude is only so big, that's why parliament is discussing a reduction in the number of election districts. Incidentally, the tool by Dr. Grodenbauer shows how this could be done
fairly and optimally within the constraints set by the German constitution. A solvable problem if parliament wants to solve the problem. Alas parliament hasn't addressed the issue so far.
After the election the parties usually negotiate a coalition treaty then parliament votes on the chancellorship. The next chancellor is going to be the 4th chancellor since 1982 and yes, chancellor Merkel has been in power for over half of the existence of the re-unified Germany.
Since the governing coalition in parliament needs the consent of the Bundesrat for almost everything (federal law anyway) it is advisable to pay attention to the make up of the Bundesrat, but then again, there are 6 state elections this year... looking kinda black & green if
you ask me.
Corona has been a great reset. The CDU received a massive boost in the polls, while the party still hasn't decided on a new boss replacing AKK. Here's an interesting thread on the matter https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1347899509674749952?s=20
Corona has been a great reset. The CDU received a massive boost in the polls, while the party still hasn't decided on a new boss replacing AKK. Here's an interesting thread on the matter https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status/1347899509674749952?s=20
Anyhow, with Merkel on here way out an era is going to end.
If you read the thread about the leadership contest in the CDU, you'll know there're vastly different visions competing. I'm an unaffiliated vote, but ive got no trouble admitting that I strongly prefer Röttgen
If you read the thread about the leadership contest in the CDU, you'll know there're vastly different visions competing. I'm an unaffiliated vote, but ive got no trouble admitting that I strongly prefer Röttgen
This might be helpful to you, dear reader https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1347564653656887296?s=20
If you made it this far, congratulations, I might just continue. I dunno.
If you made it this far, congratulations, I might just continue. I dunno.
Lotta things are happening, in the states, on the federal level and ofc in Europe. Rather exciting all of it. Europe has always been Raison d’Être of the German state, but for the first time ever Germany might just actively formulate a vision, as opposed to letting France lead
§23 I GG says "With a view to establishing a united Europe, the Federal Republic of Germany shall participate.. " https://www.gesetze-im-internet.de/englisch_gg/englisch_gg.html#p0127 European integration might just go into over drive this decade.
The federal republic has always been slightly odd compared to France or the USA. The German government has never really formulated strategic goals, except for the desire to re-unify which lead to the Ostpolitik. Foreign policy in general was outsourced to the US and France
