Read on Twitter
I think this is debatable, and we won't know the answer for a while. There are two possible trajectories here. 1/x https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1347582400008749056
Trajectory 1: The attack becomes a signal event like Ruby Ridge or Waco, and extremists use it as a rallying point going forward. They will certainly try to do this, but there are some key differences.
Primarily, the tepid federal response (which is bad on most levels) doesn't compare to those events, where LE screwed up and people died as an unambiguous result of questionable or straight bad LE action rather than the melee situation here.
Also those cases were the result of proactive federal enforcement, as opposed to a clearly defense posture here.
Trajectory 2 is backlash. There's some growing evidence for that in the snap polls from the last couple days. See:
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1347674222194253825
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1347674222194253825
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1347674222194253825
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/1347674222194253825
This won't affect the diehards, but it might suggest the event won't bring a lot new blood into the movement.
I suspect the backlash will grow if, as seems likely, more violence and/or intimidation occurs on Jan. 17 and Jan. 20.
It is possible, of course, that the trajectory will thread the needle between these poles, as the Unite the Right rally did. It didn't touch off a new golden age of extremism, but the pot has been simmering since then, with a longer-term effect.
And one point of value in these events, especially as the online crackdown grows, is that people meet and make connections IRL, some of which will be enduring connections.
On the other hand, a few people (and hopefully a lot by the end) are getting introduced to the idea of consequences for their actions, which may have a chilling effect.
Ultimately, none of this is likely to be clear until the Trump presidency is over, and maybe not then. But we've never had an extremist leader who was President (or ex-President) of the United States. And much will ride on what he does.
Ultimately, all bets are off until after the inauguration
Or more accurately, we can't assess the impact of this event until it's over, and it's not over yet.
