It's a year since I first tweeted about an unusual pneumonia spreading in Wuhan, China. I lost my mother to Covid-19 on 27th December. My research on the disease, summarised in this thread, is dedicated to her.
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1343510752691425281?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1343510752691425281?s=20
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Thanks to the funders of my research: @wellcometrust, @esrc, @nihrresearch, @healthfdn, @scotgov, @The_MRC, and to collaborators formal and informal. Thanks also to my wonderful Twitter followers for your contributions and interest.
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The virus that causes Covid-19 (SARS-CoV-2) is airborne. This means it is transmitted by *shared air* at both close range (< 2m) and more distant (>2m). It *is* important to physically distance but thereâs nothing magical about 2m.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
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https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223
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That paper, led by @drnrjones with @DrZeshanQureshi and others not on Twitter, argued that we need to shift from âwhat is the effect size of intervention X and is it statistically significant?â to a complex system model in which multiple factors all contribute and interact.
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The @drnrjones paper included a #CovidRiskChart showing (in broad terms) the influence of crowding, ventilation, masking and activity (e.g. speaking) on transmission rates. Chart and many translations of it are in this thread.
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1300086990709362693?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1300086990709362693?s=20
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Masks work. Even imperfect masks worn by most people reduce transmission â and this gets *magnified* with each person not infected. Masks arenât harmful but they do interfere with communication. With @CzypionkaThomas and others.
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1343804157342453760?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1343804157342453760?s=20
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My PhD student @HeleneMarivdW led on a paper about masking as a social practice â something that has cultural meaning and moral worth (or, in some societies, has negative connotations).
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3021
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https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3021
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Another of my PhD students, sports medicine physician @DrPaulDijkstra, @drnrjones and student Jonny Bowley worked with me on this paper summarising the evidence on masks and exercise.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7494435/
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https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7494435/
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Masks are a controversial and emotive subject. I summarised my response to the counter-arguments (âmasks donât work and are harmfulâ) in this graphic.
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1318078587455606784?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1318078587455606784?s=20
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I also wrote a piece for @spectator on why the Danish randomised controlled trial of masks wasnât good science.
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1331186825038340097?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1331186825038340097?s=20
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With colleagues from Singapore and drawing on rapidly published guidance from China, I wrote an early guide to assessing patients with suspected Covid-19 remotely.
https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1182.abstract
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https://www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m1182.abstract
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With @sarashawx2, @ChrysanthiP and others (led by Joe Wherton), I wrote a summary of the qualitative evidence base for video consulting.
https://bmjleader.bmj.com/content/4/3/120?utm_term=consumer&utm_content=012020&utm_campaign=usage&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=trendmd
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https://bmjleader.bmj.com/content/4/3/120?utm_term=consumer&utm_content=012020&utm_campaign=usage&utm_medium=cpc&utm_source=trendmd
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With colleagues from Oxford and Imperial (including @lusignan_s and @bcdelaney1), I did (and continue to do) research to develop a scale for assessing patients with acute Covid-19 remotely (by video or telephone).
https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1327150486320013314?s=20
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https://twitter.com/trishgreenhalgh/status/1327150486320013314?s=20
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Undertaken before the pandemic but relevant to remote consulting during it, I contributed to @LucasSeurenâs micro-analysis of turn-taking in video consultations (those awkward gaps and overlaps):
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378216620302782
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https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378216620302782
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Currently still at preprint stage, we did a systematic review led by academic fellow Asli Kalin and with @javid_lab, @mjknight0380 and @mattinadakim on the different exertional desaturation tests being considered for Covid-19.
https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-105883/v1/fae6ab19-d5bd-44ee-98df-7b62a2e3e48e.pdf
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https://assets.researchsquare.com/files/rs-105883/v1/fae6ab19-d5bd-44ee-98df-7b62a2e3e48e.pdf
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With @mjknight0380, @ChristineACourt and others, I did a clinical review of management of long Covid in primary care. This fed (with other work) into NICE guidance, so see also @NICEcomms for updates.
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.M3026.abstract
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https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.M3026.abstract
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With @laddsemma @rushforthalex and others from #longcovid communities, I did interview and focus group research on the lived experience of long Covid.
https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-020-06001-y
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https://bmchealthservres.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12913-020-06001-y
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I got involved in several rapid systematic reviews â for example this one led by @elainetoomey1 on when itâs safe for HCWs to re-use, or extend the use of, facemasks and respirators.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/infection-control-and-hospital-epidemiology/article/extended-use-or-reuse-of-singleuse-surgical-masks-and-filtering-facepiece-respirators-during-covid19-a-rapid-systematic-review/A5DACFDC66C8D3001F4A2E67C6A7AEF6
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https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/infection-control-and-hospital-epidemiology/article/extended-use-or-reuse-of-singleuse-surgical-masks-and-filtering-facepiece-respirators-during-covid19-a-rapid-systematic-review/A5DACFDC66C8D3001F4A2E67C6A7AEF6
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I had a walk-on part in an important study by @lusignan_s and his team to sort out the nomenclature and coding of Covid-19 (building the ship while sailing it etc).
https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/220558/
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https://eprints.gla.ac.uk/220558/
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With @kamleshkhunti and others, I wrote about how the âCovidisationâ of health services threatens the care of long term conditions. https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m3793
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I joined a group led by @thewrittenro arguing for effective and proactive community engagement in the vaccine rollout.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32642-8/fulltext?dgcid=hubspot_email_newsletter_tlcoronavirus20&utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=102667025&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9p-l7TpN7CXp_1rEABOL6xdSriG353pCHVokE9ZEbbZhOBxk6kgysZL0JdXKsUNnagWtrhBrQnr8uU-7u_Y5jnrjCaSw&utm_content=102668959&utm_source=hs_email
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32642-8/fulltext?dgcid=hubspot_email_newsletter_tlcoronavirus20&utm_campaign=tlcoronavirus20&utm_medium=email&_hsmi=102667025&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-9p-l7TpN7CXp_1rEABOL6xdSriG353pCHVokE9ZEbbZhOBxk6kgysZL0JdXKsUNnagWtrhBrQnr8uU-7u_Y5jnrjCaSw&utm_content=102668959&utm_source=hs_email
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Pandemics are uncertain. I wrote about managing uncertainty in Covid-19 with @harryrutter and @mirandarwolpert
https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3349
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https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3349
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I worried that evidence-based medicine (EBM), so often a force for good, had become too tied up in its own methodological red tape to be able to deal with complexity and uncertainty in the pandemic.
https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003266
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https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003266
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Intern Gilly Mroz along with @rushforthalex, @ChrysanthiP and me, analysed media depictions of remote consulting in the first wave of the pandemic.
https://bjgp.org/content/71/702/e1.short
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https://bjgp.org/content/71/702/e1.short
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In December 2020, I gave a lecture about the stormy relationship between scientists, the media and the public, called âGive me back my factâ. You can watch it here (from about 9 min for half an hour):
https://twitter.com/CfSocialScience/status/1337430965749166080?s=20
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https://twitter.com/CfSocialScience/status/1337430965749166080?s=20
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In 2021 I'll be focusing on some ongoing and new research, especially the continuing impact of remote health services (and how to reduce inequalities as services go more digital), and validation of the RECAP score.
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