This will not end on January 20th.

We should prepare for the likelihood that outside the White House Trump will morph into the leader of a revanchist movement seeking to topple the government.

The radical forces will coalesce around the banner of restoration.

Such a movement could easily leverage support of paramilitary groups as well as significant numbers of elected officials in state houses and congress, potentially police unions and/or individual cops.

They think Wednesday was their Fort Sumpter.

Comparisons to the Civil War have pointed to the fact that there are not neatly sectional divisions like 11 contiguous Southern states in 1860. But that doesn’t preclude the possibility of messier internecine conflict emerging.

We should prepare for the possibility of a violent and ongoing factional movement aimed at returning Trump to the White House through violence.

At the very least we should expect a GOP that, under the banner of Biden’s supposed illegitimacy, takes extraordinary steps to deny him the prerogatives of governance. I think it’s safe to say we’ve seen the opening curtains for a sustained constitutional crisis.

And we should dismiss the inert arguments about forgoing investigation or prosecution of Trump’s crimes because they will “further divide” the country. The breach is apparent. Prosecution is not just right morally, it’s right tactically.

One common response to this thread is “He can’t do all this from jail,” but it’s not certain that he’ll ever see a day of prison time & even less certain he couldnt do this from behind bars. Look at James Curley, the corrupt Boston populist who was elected mayor from behind bars.

In a very different context Eugene Debs ran for President from Atlanta Federal Prison in 1920 and got nearly a million votes. Lots of political figures have remained as the head of movements while behind bars. We should accept that there are no easy routes out of this.