Is lockdown 3.0 enough?

From mobility data we can see that this lockdown shows far greater reductions in mobility vs lockdown 2, but still not quite as much as lockdown 1.

This is fairly consistent reflected in lots of source. /1

Lockdown 1.0 brought the R down to around 0.6.

On mobility data alone, we could hope lockdown 3.0 to perhaps end up slightly higher than that, 0.75 or 0.8. Still below 1.

No problem right? /2

Wrong.

New variant is MORE transmissible, so the natural R (without measures) is closer to 4.5 than to 3 (like original COVID).

So the SAME RESTRICTIONS might mean the R is 1.1-1.4. And the pandemic CONTINUES TO GROW. /3

Secondly, we are in a WORSE starting position - our hospitals are completely overwhelmed as it is with mass staff shortages.

So we need this lockdown to be MORE EFFECTIVE, and to bring cases down FASTER than in the Spring. And we still haven't got there. /4

So whatever you were doing in previous days, it ISN'T ENOUGH, and we all need to maximise hand washing, face covering and ventilation, and MINIMISE social contact as much as possible, with ANYBODY.

And we need to do that NOW.

Especially in London. /5

Will vaccination help?

The vaccine looks like it will still be effective against the new variant, which is reassuring, but we can't outrun an exponential problem (the virus), with a linear one ( a vaccine programme).

AND we can't protect those who are ALREADY infected. /6

The vaccination programme should be running 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, using absolutely EVERY available resource to do so; volunteers, army, pharmacists, well-trained apes.

I['m joking on the last one. Partially. ] /7

And in the meantime counter any misinformation you find, follow the rules, and help in any way you can.

This time it's darker, but there is a genuine light on the horizon. We just need to paddle harder than ever to get there. /end