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BAD CORONAVIRUS VARIANT DATA—Folks, the B117 #SARSCoV2 variant from 
is a dangerous *hellish beast*. This new UK data shows attack rates (% exposed who get infected) of B117 vs common variants: B117 has 33-36% higher attack rate overall. It’s also maybe worse in kids.
#COVID19
is a dangerous *hellish beast*. This new UK data shows attack rates (% exposed who get infected) of B117 vs common variants: B117 has 33-36% higher attack rate overall. It’s also maybe worse in kids. #COVID19
2) While the B117 variant is has 33-36% higher attack rate vs common types overall... it’s even greater in youngest kids. Notably, in kids 0-9, the new B117 is 43% higher in the shortcut B117 test.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950823/Variant_of_Concern_VOC_202012_01_Technical_Briefing_3_-_England.pdf
3) Furthermore, in genetic tests of b117, the B117 has 47.5% higher attack rate vs common virus type among kids age 0-9!
Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults.
Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids.
Compare that w/ only 39.5% higher for B117 among adults.
Two separate sets of data—same thing—with both pointing to higher relative increase in young kids.
4) Bottomline, it seems new UK B117 variant has not only ~ 33-36% higher attack rate compared to common #SARSCoV2 type, but it is 43.5-47.5% higher for young kids!
While kids lower risk than adults overall, the new B117 virus is potentially relatively worse for young kids.
B117 variant has not only ~ 33-36% higher attack rate compared to common #SARSCoV2 type, but it is 43.5-47.5% higher for young kids!While kids lower risk than adults overall, the new B117 virus is potentially relatively worse for young kids.
5) this is why Denmark’s CDC urgently warned to crush the pandemic now or else! https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249
6) How much of a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.
But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline.
6x higher vs old variant.
But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day instead—3x baseline.6x higher vs old variant.
7) I’m gonna simplify key things with the new attack rate data:
—New b117 variant is more contagious (high attack rate)
—kids still lower transmission but not as much as before
—B117’s increase in attack over the old type appears greater in kids 0-9 than increase in adults.
—New b117 variant is more contagious (high attack rate)
—kids still lower transmission but not as much as before
—B117’s increase in attack over the old type appears greater in kids 0-9 than increase in adults.
8) other data on kids transmission. This is data mostly based on old common variant, not the new B117. It’s already worrying. (SAGE is UK govt expert group) https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1345858404263321600
9) latest SCIENCE study https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1347860038661140483
