1/ Thread on my latest for @SeekingAlpha – "Tesla: 3 Years After Its Public Unveiling, The Tesla Semi Is Still Stuck In Development"
$TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development
$TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development
2/ In Nov. 2017, Elon crowed that the Tesla Semi would reach customers in 2019. But, as with so many Musk promises, this timeline required subsequent *ahem* revision. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4339846-tesla-semi-is-still-stalled
3/ Mere months after the unveiling, where he called the Semi a “beast” that would “redefine trucking,” it almost seemed as if Elon had lost interest. Indeed, during the 1Q18 earnings, he admitted the Semi was “not something we really think about much.” $TSLA $TSLAQ
4/ Elon's apparent lack of commitment to a speedy commercialization timeline proved real as time went on. Throughout 2018, Tesla insisted that the Semi would enter production some time in 2019. Throughout 2019, Tesla said the Semi would enter production in 2020. $TSLA $TSLAQ
5/ Things finally appeared to be moving last June. Elon, seemingly shaken out of his Semi apathy at last, delivered a stirring call to action in company-wide email:
"It's time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production.”
$TSLA $TSLAQ https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-semi-deliveries-will-begin-in-2021-with-many-new-tech-into-it
"It's time to go all out and bring the Tesla Semi to volume production.”
$TSLA $TSLAQ https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-semi-deliveries-will-begin-in-2021-with-many-new-tech-into-it
6/ Alas this was to prove yet another false dawn for the Tesla Semi. By the time Tesla reported earnings for 2Q20, it had once again moved the timeline out – to 2021. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmanian-blog/tesla-semi-deliveries-will-begin-in-2021-with-many-new-tech-into-it#:~:text=Tesla%20Semi%20Deliveries%20Will%20Begin%20in%202021%20With%20Many%20New%20Tech%20Into%20It,-by%20Eva%20Fox&text=In%20June%2C%20a%20leaked%20email,Tesla%20Semi%20to%20volume%20production.&text=%22Tesla%20Semi%20deliveries%20will%20also%20begin%20in%202021.%22
7/ Today, there are still just 2 Semi prototypes in Tesla’s fleet – the same number, incidentally, as there were in 2018. Talk about a ramp! $TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development
8/ With the Tesla Semi development program so clearly stuck in the mud, some analysts have begun to ask whether Tesla might be better off just shelving the truck altogether. $TSLA $TSLAQ
R/T @ShortingIsFun https://twitter.com/ShortingIsFun/status/1337375873071271936
R/T @ShortingIsFun https://twitter.com/ShortingIsFun/status/1337375873071271936
9/ Meanwhile, rival automakers have been accelerating their own EV semi-hauler programs, with many apparently poised to lap the stalled out Tesla Semi. Daimler, for one, is already making limited test deliveries of the eCascadia. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://electrek.co/2020/03/04/daimler-electric-freightliner-semi-trucks-ecascadia/
10/ Clearly Tesla’s first mover advantage, such as it was, has evaporated in the past 3 years. Yet while the economic & competitive arguments for ditching the Semi are largely sound, Tesla simply can't the optics of scrapping a key program. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4172159-tesla-semi-is-dead
11/ The Tesla Semi is, ultimately, just a small part of Tesla's overarching narrative of inevitable EV domination. Then again, Tesla's actual business has also faded into the background in recent days as the stonk price has taken full control. $TSLA $TSLAQ
12/ But even small parts can have outsized impacts, especially for companies and stocks that are heavily story-driven, such as Tesla. Continued delays to production of key new product lines may soon threaten to undermine Tesla’s growth narrative. $TSLA $TSLAQ
13/ As I've said many times: In the fight between narrative and reality, reality always wins in the end.
Investors more focused on the growth narrative Tesla expounds than on the market reality in which it operates may rue the consequences. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development
Investors more focused on the growth narrative Tesla expounds than on the market reality in which it operates may rue the consequences. $TSLA $TSLAQ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397998-tesla-3-years-after-public-unveiling-tesla-semi-is-still-stuck-in-development