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Appalled as we are about events in Washington on Wednesday, let’s keep an eye on the bigger picture. Rather than resurrecting Trumpism, as they’d hoped, the insurrectionists have ensured its demise. 1/13
Trumpism's downward trajectory was already being accelerated by Trump’s refusal to accept defeat and increasingly deranged attempts to prove electoral fraud that didn’t exist, but the mob that stormed the Capitol have delivered the coup-de-grace. 2/13
Trump’s biggest lie was that he represented the will of the people against an elite, which is why he cannot accept electoral defeat by the people, it undermines his very basis. 3/13
This was why Biden kept saying ‘we the people’ during his speeches, it struck at the heart of Trump's claimed USP. Enormous credit must go to the Biden-Harris team, they ran a very cany campaign. 4/13
The ‘we represent the will of the people’ is the same argument used by #Brexit elite in UK. Johnson, Farage, Gove et al are riding a similar beast to Trump’s mount. The only difference is that instead of American nationalism, exceptionalism, and isolationism, it's English. 5/13
Of course, Trump and Johnson are also lying to themselves. They almost certainly believe they are in control of the mob but in practice they are not. They are essentially now trapped in a world they shaped. There was something inevitable about what we saw on Capitol Hill. 6/13
Trump had to keep feeding the beast, and incitement to insurrection was just next step on a path he had little control of. 7/13
In UK the more intelligent amongst #Brexit elite, like Gove, must know if they continue to double down on Brexit lies, they'll share the fate of Trump, an eventual humiliating electoral defeat. 8/13
But the same will happen if ministers try to reverse their position and tell people the truth about Brexit, and begin to admit how in practice it makes the UK poorer and weaker and those that live in the UK less safe and with fewer freedoms. 9/13
People like Gove know if they change tack, they risk the fate Lindsey Graham has just experienced at an airport, surrounded by mob of Trump / Republican supporters calling him a traitor. If you choose to ride a beast, it's very dangerous if you decide you want to dismount. 10/13
I’ve previously said end of 2019-early 2020 marked high-water mark for populist nationalism across world & there were number of signs in 2nd half of 2020 it was clearly on wane. The Trumpists in US have just accelerated that decline, not just in the States but worldwide. 11/13
To make sure UK follows that trajectory of rejecting populist nationalism, there’s a lot of work to do. Nimble footwork is still needed by the leaders of non-nationalist parties including a fair degree of cooperation between them. 12/13
I am however beginning to feel confident that the signs are there that we are on the path towards the English nationalists who have taken over the Conservative Party facing a Trumpesque scale of defeat in 2024. 13/13
