I think ppl are going to be surprised, if horrified at the GOP’s durability. Major party collapse has only happened twice in US history, after Washington’s death and the age of Jeffersonian dominance and right ahead of the civil war (that party, the Whigs, was only 20 years old).

Basically the only thing I learned in class in college was “Duverger’s law,” which my skepticism about poli sci aside, I think is actually true. The US as organized under the Constitution = two parties. No third party has gotten close to the White House. Not random.

If you told me the GOP actually collapsed as a major party, I would actually be worried about civil war, because that’s what happened last time. But the GOP’s collapse would be more significant, as it is eight times older than the Whigs ever were.

What do the GOP and the Dems stand for? Nothing. This isn’t Europe. Parties have open nominating contests and are organized bottom up, not top down (Europe usually has slates). Trump and Sanders just spent six years showing how vulnerable the leaderships are to hijack.

Politics is chaos, like life. People yearn for grand narrative. Trump was more formidable, wilier than the establishment in 2015-16 so Trump will never lose again, it’s said. The establishment may be out of touch but they’re not idiots. It’s not 2015, 2016 anymore. They can win.

I don’t think it’s likely, I think the “Trump successor” wing is favored, but someone like Romney could win the nomination again, perhaps literally Mitt, esp in a hyper-divided field. If it’s Romney vs. Harris in 2024, tons of current haters are going to vote Romney. Sorry.

Most everyone doubted Biden; he’s POTUSe.