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1/So, here we go with some cv19 updates for Allegheny County (PA). There's been lots more doom and gloom lately from our elected and appointed officials and from the media. Just today, we've seen headlines that our county is "tops" in "cases" ( @TribLIVE)... (thread)
2/...the obsession with reporting probable and "confirmed" positive test results as some true reflection of illness or underlying morbidity is an embarrassment, but I'll play along to get us started. How is the county really doing with cv19 "cases", hospitalizations, and deaths?
3/These data come from the county dashboard and are current as of last evening (there is always some movement as the days pass and as @HealthAllegheny corrects its numbers, and pulls more data into their system).
4/Daily positive test counts (not adjusted for amount of testing) from March through the end of 2020. Green bars are daily counts and the red line superimposes the 7-day moving average. The increase that started in early Nov, peaked in early Dec and has been decreasing since.
5/This December decrease in positive test results is observed even when adjusting for number of tests administered. In other words, the "case" decrease seems real - also, *no evidence yet of any post-holiday surge*. So far, so good...
6/With a decrease in positive test results, naturally comes a substantive decrease in cv19 attributed hospitalizations, a better metric. Orange bars are daily hospitalization counts and the purple line superimposes the 7-day moving average. Good news, right?
7/And also good news for cv19 deaths (for critics: I'm not saying cv19 death is good but that cv19 death trends are encouraging). Red bars are daily cv19 death counts and the blue line is the superimposed 7-day moving average. Trends as expected, w/ the hospitalization decrease.
8/Note: each graph above plots positive test results, hospitalizations, & deaths using y-axes that have different scales; positive test results vastly outnumber hospitalizations & deaths-as seen in this figure, where all metrics are plotted in the same space, on the same scale.
9/So, let's please get the proper positive perspective on things @HealthAllegheny and even though it doesn't generate as many clicks or readers @WPXI @KDKA @WTAE @TribLIVE @PittsburghPG @905wesa, how about some accuracy in reporting?
10/The county, like the state, is plainly headed in exactly the right direction.
11/So, @GovernorTomWolf @SecretaryLevine @PAHealthDept, how about releasing the rest of those restrictions? They've never helped and are not responsible for any favorable trends observed (plenty of data available to support abandoning NPIs)
