Things are very concerning with the pandemic
Not just vaccine distribution but outbreak itself
It's bad
Yesterday we had more than 4,000 deaths from COVID19
Highest single day ever
But story is worse when you look at cases, hospitalizations
And thus, urgency to act
Thread
Not just vaccine distribution but outbreak itself
It's bad
Yesterday we had more than 4,000 deaths from COVID19
Highest single day ever
But story is worse when you look at cases, hospitalizations
And thus, urgency to act
Thread
Let's talk data -- via @COVID19Tracking
7-day moving averages from yesterday
Daily deaths 2761: highest ever
Daily new hospitalizations: 4284: highest ever
Daily new cases: 224K: highest ever
% positive: 16.6%: highest since Apr 21
You know what's not highest ever? Testing
7-day moving averages from yesterday
Daily deaths 2761: highest ever
Daily new hospitalizations: 4284: highest ever
Daily new cases: 224K: highest ever
% positive: 16.6%: highest since Apr 21
You know what's not highest ever? Testing
So this is a problem for lots of reasons
Obviously, having more Americans dying is horrible
But yesterday's deaths represent infections from mid-December
Before the holiday surge
And back then, cases were lower
And the percentage of tests positive was lower
3/8
Obviously, having more Americans dying is horrible
But yesterday's deaths represent infections from mid-December
Before the holiday surge
And back then, cases were lower
And the percentage of tests positive was lower
3/8
Remember, % positive is another way of asking – how many infections are you missing?
And at 16.6% positive – we are missing a vast majority of infections
And of course, there’s the new variant that we aren’t tracking closely
So what do the numbers mean?
4/8
And at 16.6% positive – we are missing a vast majority of infections
And of course, there’s the new variant that we aren’t tracking closely
So what do the numbers mean?
4/8
With case fatality rate around 1.7%
Yesterday's 4,000 deaths will soon become new daily norm
And lets talk testing because it remains a problem
We did as much testing yesterday as we did on November 20
So since 11/20, Cases are up 35%, deaths have doubled, but testing is same
Yesterday's 4,000 deaths will soon become new daily norm
And lets talk testing because it remains a problem
We did as much testing yesterday as we did on November 20
So since 11/20, Cases are up 35%, deaths have doubled, but testing is same
With variant starting to take off, easy to see us hit 500,000 deaths before February ends
Catastrophic
But not baked in. Not inevitable.
We can substantially slow deaths in February
How? By getting high risk people vaccinated in January
6/8
Catastrophic
But not baked in. Not inevitable.
We can substantially slow deaths in February
How? By getting high risk people vaccinated in January
6/8
Remember that >90% of deaths are in people over 55
Which is why we have to prioritize getting vaccines out quickly, especially to older people
And why Biden Team announcement to not hold back doses is so smart
Bottom line is this:
We are in for a VERY rough few months.
7/8
Which is why we have to prioritize getting vaccines out quickly, especially to older people
And why Biden Team announcement to not hold back doses is so smart
Bottom line is this:
We are in for a VERY rough few months.
7/8
A horrible January largely baked in because of failures in December
But what we do in upcoming weeks will shape February
We have to remain careful, wear masks, and push on testing
But critical to get as many vaccinated in next few weeks as possible
It will save a lot of lives
But what we do in upcoming weeks will shape February
We have to remain careful, wear masks, and push on testing
But critical to get as many vaccinated in next few weeks as possible
It will save a lot of lives