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How about a little DFS variance thread to kick off 2021? Below I have simulated the results of a very strong player (~20% roi) and slightly profitable player (~2% roi) so people can get a look at the variance they should expect to encounter.
If you are one of the best players in a given sport (expected ROI of 20% in decent field GPP's) than every 100 slates, your median downswing will be should be about 18.5x whatever your slate entry fees are. $500/slate? You will definitely see a -$10K 100 slate run
Some 100 slate samples you will only have ~12x ($6K) downswing, the worst downswings will be 35-50x ($17.5 to $25K) When we expand to 500 slate samples, you can expect your typical downswing to be about 30x ($15K) with the worst again in the 35-50x ($17.5K - $25K) range.
The outlook for people who are only slightly profitable is much more bleak. Barely profitable player? You will see similar swings over 100 slate samples, but the 500 slate swings will be longer and much more brutal.
With a 2% roi, your median downswing during a 500 slate sample is 65x ($32.5K) with the worst ones being 100x-150x ($50K-$75K).
Keep in mind if you only play weeklong PGA, you get about 50 slates a year. NFL main slate? Like 20ish. Prepare yourselves accordingly.
Keep in mind if you only play weeklong PGA, you get about 50 slates a year. NFL main slate? Like 20ish. Prepare yourselves accordingly.
In NFL, if you are playing every slate (Main, Early, Late, Showdown) the variance will be higher because of the correlation between all the slates. Something to consider anytime different slates contain the same games.
These sims are also for GPP field sizes of a few thousand people. If you are playing smaller GPP sizes you can scale these down slightly and if you are playing much larger fields then crank then up
(p.s. the increase is exponential not linear)
(p.s. the increase is exponential not linear)
