NC schools experience:
11 districts data; ~100k
in person school

Aug to Oct 2020
NC had 1-2 cases per 1k pop (that's brisk)
733 community acq cases

If schools' transmission mirrored the state
Expected 800+ cases in school

Actual:
32 in school transmissions

Thoughts
[thread]

I really don't know what to say
America has few opportunities for kids who are born poor, school has long been one of them

Other countries recognize that schools provide upward mobility, detect child abuse, provide a hot meal, educate kids, allow them to develop socially

While the European union has bent over backwards to open schools, in the US we have seen massive school opposition

The schools that are open are not based on scientific factors (rate of transmission/ hospitalization), but by political factors (do they hate trump - close; strong unions - closed)

The mantra used is that schools are a threat to kids and teachers

Recently the Swedish experience came out and that showed that schools are remarkably safe

It showed incredibly low risks to students and teachers from open schools (without even masks!) https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1347224583460376579?s=20

Yet, many said this doesn't apply to the USA b/c well, the USA can never learn anything from another country; we instead must rely on theoretical concerns & twitter accounts that engage in fear-mongering or are unappreciative of trade-offs

Now, of course, a new paper appears in Pediatrics, with incredibly low in school transmission rates despite community spread

" Our data support the concept that
schools can stay open safely in communities with widespread community transmission"

https://pediatrics.aappublications.org/content/pediatrics/early/2021/01/06/peds.2020-048090.full.pdf

"Our data support the concept that
schools can stay open safely in communities with widespread community transmission"

"Our data support the concept that
schools can stay open safely in communities with widespread community transmission"

Limitations

Yes of course we can design larger, more representative and bigger studies, we can even randomize school reopenings

That's what sensible people would do @AtleFretheim

But where we are emotionally is so far from this

Folks are living in denial

Again, I approached this as a policy person starting from neutrality
This is where I end up
After weighing tradeoffs

My journey https://twitter.com/VPrasadMDMPH/status/1347402567395889152?s=20

Oh, and just to make it absolutely clear, so we can all agree, North Carolina appears to be in the United States.

(Pic)