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We're about 3 1/2 weeks into the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines in Wisconsin, and I'm not the only one curious about how it's going. But trying to figure it out means pinning down how the @CDCgov and @DHSWI are tracking vaccine distribution. Spoiler: It's not very straightforward!
Let's start with the CDC, which updates a national vaccination tracker once every weekday (or at least it's supposed to), sharing stats about the number of vaccine doses that have been shipped and how many people have received a dose in each state: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations
As of this Jan. 7, the CDC's tracker showed 322,775 vaccine doses have been distributed to Wisconsin, and 82,170 have received their first dose. One caveat: the CDC's numbers appeared to only track first doses.
The @DHSWI is also publishing numbers on vaccine distribution but on a weekly basis. As of its last update on Jan. 7, the agency recorded 266,675 doses were shipped to Wisconsin and 110,207 doses had been administered: https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/vaccine-data.htm
One important distinction related to the vaccine rollout is doses administered is a different metric than people vaccinated. In a Jan. 7 media briefing, @DHSWI reported that of the roughly 110K doses administered in Wisconsin, about 5K were second doses. https://www.wpr.org/health-officials-pandemic-progress-depends-more-vaccine
The @DHSWI update came while the CDC's tracker still showed about 82K doses administered in Wisconsin. However, it shouldn't be a surprise that the CDC and state health department are reporting a different number of shots in arms.
Just like discrepancies in COVID data published by state and local agencies, there are factors like timing that impact reported vaccination numbers. https://www.wiscontext.org/why-wisconsins-state-and-local-coronavirus-updates-differ-day-day
To be clear, tracking data is only one part of assessing the vaccine rollout. A Jan. 5 report in the @journalsentinel recounted frustrations of healthcare workers and first responders attempting to secure doses while dealing with a confusing rollout. https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/01/05/wisconsin-covid-19-vaccine-rollout-schedule-behind-midwest-states-health-care-workers-get-vaccinated/4127810001/
The story sought to contextualize Wisconsin's vaccine distribution rollout through federal vaccination data, comparing Wisconsin's vaccination numbers against those in other Midwestern states as reported by the CDC.
But reporting discrepancies make comparing Wisconsin's vaccine rollout to other states via the CDC's vaccine tracker complicated and frankly not all that meaningful, imho. Additionally, priority groups and distribution plans differ between states.
Comparisons are also complicated by the fact that states have vastly different populations to vaccinate. The small-population Dakotas have so far vaccinated a significantly higher percentage of residents than Wisconsin and some larger Midwestern states, according to the CDC data.
Sure, larger states are receiving more doses and arguably have more infrastructure to distribute and administer vaccines, but they're also arguably embarking on more complex endeavors that may take more time to get ramped up.
The difficulties of comparing Wisconsin vaccine data to other states aside, interpreting the state health department's numbers on their own requires some close reading.
For starters, the vaccine doses the CDC has labeled as "distributed" and @DHSWI labeled as "shipped" to Wisconsin have not all necessarily been delivered to the state's 1,000+ registered vaccinators. An unknown number of shipped dosages could remain in transit.
Meanwhile, the doses labeled as shipped don't include any of the doses Wisconsin has so far reserved for residents and staff at skilled nursing and assisted living facilities.
Instead, the doses reserved for nursing homes are being shipped directly to pharmacies through a federal partnership program. It's unclear to me how many of these doses have made their way to Wisconsin pharmacies based on available data. https://www.wpr.org/wisconsin-nursing-homes-begin-vaccinating-staff-and-residents
Another complication is Wisconsin's data on the number of doses administered includes any shots in arms, whether the doses were distributed through the pharmacy program for nursing homes or through the state's main distribution system.
All this is to say that you should take with a pretty big grain of salt any assertions about the % of Wisconsin's allotted or distributed vaccine doses that have been administered. There's simply no way to arrive at a definitive number given all the uncertainties discussed above.
Finally, any claim (positive or negative) about where Wisconsin's vaccine distribution stands in relation to its allotted doses or compared to other states is pretty much going to be immediately out of date, especially as vaccinations continue to ramp up.
If you're still interested in tracking the available data on COVID-19 vaccine distribution in Wisconsin, we'll be updating a new addition to our data visualizations on @WisContext as new state numbers are reported: https://www.wiscontext.org/what-covid-19-pandemic-looks-wisconsin-maps-and-charts
